[Rockingham]

You are correct in your analysis. I think though that China is unlikely to go to war because if they did, they might take Taiwan, but the cost would be considerable and would lead to China's commercial and trade isolation.

Moreover, if China did significant damage to the US, the American public would be furious and out for revenge. As an opening counter-move, China would be stripped of their external assets through US diplomatic, economic, and military action.

From that perspective, China's leadership seems likely to realize that going to war would not improve China's position even if Taiwan were easily taken. As with Germany in 1914, the shrewder choice is to avoid war while continuing to pursue economic and political gains.

[ansel12]

I’m not sure that Taiwan is the first concern to China.

I think there could be a lot of unfolding pushes and strategic positioning from China during the next 10 and 20 years.

China now truly exists and has vain dreams and overly ambitious plans of a global scale, they can’t force them yet and they will have setbacks and overreach and sometimes make fools of themselves, but they are here in the 21st century and their quiet days are in their rear view mirror.

[mac_truck]

China doesn't need to go to war to achieve its goals, they simply need to continue peaceful (and profitable) economic development of the Global South and watch the neo-liberal West led by the United States implode under its own weight and debt.

The West may try to goad China into a war as a last ditch attempt to avoid having to pay them back the trillions they're owed, but it will likely backfire on them as it has many times before.