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To: canuck_conservative

This is all inaccurate.

The Russians report oil in tonnes. Tonnes per year, typically. There are about 7.5 barrels/ton of CRUDE. Not gasoline. Gasoline is lighter.

Russian production of oil is floating along at about 9 million BARRELS per DAY, in accordance with OPEC+ agreements. This is down from 11ish.

It is 5-6 million bpd MORE than domestic consumption.

As for refining, they refine about 5.5 million barrels/day (that’s with a non-7.5 barrels per tonne conversion). As noted they consume less than this domestically, and, pay attention here, the Urals crude blend is diesel heavy. Everything coming out of refineries is not gasoline.

I did my own calculations of refinery capacity offline, and I used very pessimistic (from a Russian perspective) estimates. It is very clear what Reuters has done is presume one light payload drone that happens to arrive at a refinery will take 100% of that refinery offline, and hold it offline since that day, with no repairs or restoration taking place.

A more reasonable, and pessimistic, estimate is a low payload drone can take out 50% of a refinery’s function, and it will take 2 weeks to restore it, which frankly is very pessimistic because you won’t lose 50%, you’ll lose a natural gas burner maybe, and that has a spare on site and will replace in hours.

But even with my pessimistic estimates, capacity loss would be about 4% average in a given week.

These journalists have no engineering background.


5 posted on 03/29/2024 10:39:15 AM PDT by Owen (.)
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To: Owen

By and large, these journalists are almost completely innumerate, let alone not having any engineering background.


23 posted on 03/29/2024 11:19:25 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: Owen

The Ukrainians are specifically targeting the Ruzzian cracking and distillation towers. Given that most of these were built by Western firms and with Western tech then the Ruzzians won’t be replacing them any time soon.


42 posted on 03/29/2024 12:45:34 PM PDT by MeganC ("Russians are subhuman" - posted by Kazan 8 March 2024)
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