In 2022 Russia was producing around ten million barrels of oil per day. I didn’t see any recent official numbers, but I have seen numbers as low as five million barrels per day.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-output-expected-hold-steady-2024-2023-12-27/
MOSCOW, Dec 27 [2023] (Reuters) - Oil output in Russia, the third largest producer in the world after the United States and Saudi Arabia, is expected to be steady or even to increase next year as Moscow has largely overcome Western sanctions, analysts said.The government has said that Russian oil and gas condensate production is set to decline to 527 million metric tons (10.54 million barrels per day) this year from 535 million tons in 2022, as Moscow has restrained supply in line with its agreement with the OPEC+ group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.
In fact, hitting refineries should not decrease crude exports. It should increase them, because either the oil has to go somewhere else than a refinery, or you have to shut down wells. The latter is a very poor option.
However... At present the crude oil market seems to be pricing in expected Ukie attacks on crude oil export infrastructure. But the Ukies have not hit such, presumably on the basis that refined products are where the bigger profits are.
The Ukies could well point out the above, and that the target list is VERY long, before they'd need to consider hitting crude oil infrastructure. Or they could bargain for, say, Taurus missiles, or better yet, capabilities to take down and keep taken down that bridge of Pooty's, in return for holding off on crude oil infrastructure. The purpose in hitting the refineries is to not only undercut Russia's war financing, it is to make Russia spread their air defenses so thinly as to render them ineffective, or go broke trying to protect so many targets. If there are enough alternative targets, there's not a big need to hit crude oil facilities.
The real crunch is that the gasoline and diesel markets are also fungible, subject to transport capacity and refinery capacity limitations or lack(s) thereof, governmental actions, and so on. That gets pretty complicated, but in general a lack of gasoline and diesel supply, wherever caused, will tend to increase prices in more-or-less free markets. The still operating refiners get to make a killing.
Of course if Biden had not sold his soul to the greenies, the markets, given time, would take care of the supply problem, much to the benefit of the Ukies.