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To: cgbg

[You made a series of statements that are highly debatable—at a minimum.

President Trump is who he is.

He will win or lose based on that.

You are not going to reshape him in an image that you like.

Lol.]


Trump, like Reagan, Clinton and Obama, has a solid, not quite majority of voters who back him due to his personal charisma. The issue with Trump is that unlike those other leaders, he alienates people outside of his core with slashing personal attacks on leaders people outside of that core respect and admire. His addiction to schoolyard taunts has suppressed his poll numbers. If he loses in 2024, this urge to inflict petty humiliations on his rivals will likely have been a factor.

Note that he is still likely to win, based on current polling trends. From start to finish, 2020 polls consistently showed Biden with a lead averaging 7 points or more. He won by 4%. Since the 2024 campaign kicked off, we have seen Trump with an average poll lead of 1%. If the polls have the same slant as 2020, Trump could win the popular vote by 4%. That would likely secure him the presidency, given the tenor of swing state votes in 2016 and 2020.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Even the money question isn’t that important. Biden does have 4x Trump’s cash. But in 2020, Trump started with a huge cash advantage, ended it with a huge cash deficit vis-a-vis Biden. And yet Biden polled double digits above Trump at the beginning, high single digits above Trump at the end, when the Democrat’s cash advantage was it its peak.


75 posted on 03/06/2024 11:49:40 AM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room)
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To: Zhang Fei

I think where our perspectives differ is that I view the history differently.

Before the days of Trump the Republicans played by the rules, addressed issues driven by Democratic and mass media agenda setters, and gradually retreated until the country turned into a mess.

Being polite may or may not win elections—but either way it allows the leftists to drive the agenda their way with minimal pushback.

President Trump said he was not there to conserve leftist victories—he is there to reverse them.

That means fighting.

When you fight you make enemies—the moderates get very nervous that the status quo is being upset—can’t we all just get along and not fight so hard....


81 posted on 03/06/2024 12:51:55 PM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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