I see the fact that Trump outperformed the polls in 2020 is too disruptive for your narrative.
.......
your thought is perfect except that in 2016 trump was behind in all the blue wall states...however he won them.
that’ what freaked out hillary. and caused the democrats to think that the election of 2016 was stolen. they officially believed the public poll which put them ahead.
So, in both 2016 and 2020, Trump did better in the actual voting than in the polls.
Is this, is this a pattern?
Therefore, if Trump is already ahead in the polls in 2024, what does this imply for the actual vote in 2024?