None of these factors are capable of improving.
“None of these factors are capable of improving”.
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Ironically, you are most likely correct. In the 2020 election, Trump received 46.8% of the popular vote, which is precisely what the current NBC poll shows. Trump is universally known, and no one is changing their mind about him. In the summer of 2023, an AP/IPSOS poll revealed that 53% of the electorate would never vote for Trump under any circumstances (also supported by the current NBC poll).
With the feeble and corrupt Biden tanking in job approval numbers, any formidable GOP nominee should be currently polling at 55% or higher (similar to Reagan over Carter in 1980).
Where does that leave things? Biden’s team is wholly invested in ramping up turnout among minority voters in certain swing states (MI, WI, PA, NV, GA and AZ). That’s where the election will be won or lost. Trump could possibly squeak out a win if enough uncommitted / independent voters in those states find him slightly less detestable than Biden. That’s his only path to victory. Calling Nikki Haley “bird brain” is certainly not endearing himself to moderate, suburban female voters at this point..