Posted on 01/25/2024 5:53:40 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
We are now China. All of our economic data is made up.
Yeah, everything is great.
Whew! I thought we were in trouble there for a second. And gas is down close to $4.00 by is now so I guess joemmentia deserves another term. In prison!
Wait to see what it gets revised down to.
There are a whole lot of empty buildings around here. Where did all the people go?
The GDP formula is
GDP = C + I + G + net Exports
G is Government Spending…. that’s where “growth” is coming from. 😟
But it’s financed by debt, so real growth is NEGATIVE.
Only thing growing here is my grocery bill and my electric bill and my water bill and and and.
CRE is expected to have serious issues in the coming year or so.
Yeah. Gee, don’t yall just feel the economic growth?
Consumer spending is going up continuously because everything costs more, thus consumers spend more.
Government deficit spending and laying on more credit card debt by consumers. Sure signs of a healthy economy right?
They are working from home. I now know quite a few people that work from home. Ten years ago it was rare. Even just prior to covid it was relatively a small percentage of full time workers.
This has led to commercial office buildings in every city being 1/3 full. That also means they are not taking in enough rent. Which results in a significant reduction in the value of the asset. With higher interest rates it makes it hard to refinance. Which may put some commercial real estate companies out of business and the banks financing those buildings in trouble.
Today’s AAA
National Average
$3.102
Price as of
1/25/24
GDP is inflation-adjusted.
Yes. Equity markets at record highs. Mortgage rates falling. Unemployment under 4%. Wage growth strong, particularly for lower income workers.
Commercial leases are relatively long. My companies is 6 years. You need to plan a couple years ahead IF you are going to move. So, over the next 4-6 years many of these leases are going to come up for renewal. Many companies will downsize their square footage requirement.
I will use my older brother as an example. He works for a major fortune 500 company in their Dallas location. It is not the corporate headquarters. Just one of three major locations in the US. He has worked from home since covid. He is 63. He does not think he will ever return to the office. So, the building that he used to commute to daily is mostly empty. So, when their lease is up they may only need 1/4 to 1/3 of the office space they were renting. This is happening all over the US. Probably the world.
“But it’s financed by debt, so real growth is NEGATIVE.”
I’m not an economist but I always wonder how much “growth” is being done with additional borrowing.
Let’s wait for the downward revisions.....
Economist Dave Bratt discusses this.
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