“Trump is as Trump does, and he’s been at it since 2015. Why the Trump hate”?
_________________________________________
There is no hate, just frustration. Joe Biden’s disapproval rating has descended almost into Jimmy Carter levels. I want him vanquished and diminished as much as any other FR member. But I have a nagging concern that the feeble and corrupt Biden could still squeak out a narrow victory in November. By any reasonable standard he should be easy pickings for the GOP, simply by running an effective and issues-oriented campaign, as Biden drools in his basement and depends on the mainstream media to carry water for him. Unfortunately, Biden remains quite viable when matched against Trump, whose disapproval rating rivals Biden’s.
Here are the three most recent General Election poll results:
Economist / YouGov – Trump 44, Biden 43 (Jan 24)
The Messenger / Harris X – Trump 48, Biden 41 (Jan. 24)
Morning Consult – Trump 45, Biden 40 (Jan. 22)
Trump hit his high water mark in the 2020 election when he carried 46.8% of the vote. Today, he is stuck in the mid 40s with zero prospect of increasing that number. He is a known quantity. The voters know him well, and no one is changing their mind about him. If the electorate was comprised exclusively of patriotic white males, Trump would have a historic landslide in 2024, winning 98% of the vote. Unfortunately the electorate is far more diverse.
As Trump’s loyal base celebrates his “victories” in Iowa and New Hampshire, what do those results really reveal? I submit the following:
As a de facto incumbent, Trump should have been able to vanquish his GOP opponents decisively (80 – 90%), especially after spending tens of millions of dollars in negative attack ads throughout 2023. Instead, between 45 and 50% of GOP voters in IA and NH said they wanted someone other than Trump to be the nominee. This is more than a little alarming at this point, and one could argue it shows weakness.
Trump’s base has proven to have enough strength and loyalty to fend off other GOP challengers. The larger question – Can Trump actually expand his appeal to other segments of the electorate that would be necessary to pull off a General Election victory?
He remains in the process of insulting and bullying his way to the GOP nomination, along the way permanently alienating a huge swath of Republican and Independent voters who would be essential to building a winning coalition.
I am no supporter of Nikki Haley, but I also know Trump will need her voters. Rather than showing some conciliation and respect, he continues with his childish ways (referring to her as “bird brain”, for example). This gets his base charged up, all the while driving away moderates and independents he would need in November. I wonder what Italian Americans think about all the months he distorted Ron DeSantis’ name? Trump doesn’t seem to care – this is all about Trump and getting his vindication.
It is no surprise that he remains stuck in the mid-40s when matched against Biden.
With Trump now a lock to win the nomination, Biden will proceed to mostly stay in the basement (along with a few trips to Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee, and perhaps Maricopa and Fulton Counties) Just last week, I saw the leader of a black mega church in Detroit describing how they are putting together a massive turnout operation for Biden in November. Along with these few visits, Biden’s team would then blanket the swing states with $2 billion in slickly produced ads and possibly squeak out a victory in November. At some point thereafter, he would turn the keys over to Kamala Harris.
This is a scary prospect, but recent history shows the concern is real. The best step he could take to begin expanding his base would be to select someone like Glenn Youngkin as a running mate.
I understand, I am about to receive incoming missiles from FR members, but I encourage everyone to contest my logic in a thoughtful manner rather than just hurl childish insults.
Incoming missile here: I flat-out agree with you. See my post below yours.
ya have to stop thinking of 20th century politics
21st century politics is a process of distancing from DC, from the UniParty ..from the previous centuries of centralized monolithic control..devolving power out and away form Fed.gov into the states
Youngkin is a nice guy. Hopelessly retro
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
BTW Trump is HIGH 40’s -low 50’S —in the battleground dtates