They're all gonna lose anyway. They were on Zeldin's coattails, but not this time.
I don't know that they'll ALL lose, but your reason for the fluke outcomes of 2022 sounds logical.
The original hyper-gerrymander that the Democrats tried to force through prior to 2022 in New York was intended to have Republicans win only 4 of 26 House seats:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/new-york/amended_democratic_proposal/
Thanks to getting a map that was less rigged in favor of the Rats (but STILL even more Democrat-friendly than 2020) and the fluke outcomes, the GOP managed to win 11 seats in what had to be the biggest shock of election night.
Eleven months from now people might be "shocked" when the majority of those flukes are reversed, but they really shouldn't be. That's going to happen even without further Democrat gerrymandering, but if the Rats get a new outrageous map anything like the one linked above, it's going to be super ugly.