Will there be a follow up prediction of the top 5 states the GOP screws up and gives away?
No, enough votes will be found in union halls and cemeteries to ensure that the slim majority continues for the Dems.
If Kelly Ayotte is the nominee in NH, she has a very good chance to win back the seat which she lost by stabbing Trump in the back a few weeks before the 2016 election.
Morse, OTOH, has no chance.
Dems have election theft down to a science now, so the Reps will take it in the shorts. Besides, WTF have the Reps done to earn my vote or yours?
Political pundits are the most clueless people about politics, just as those who run academia are the least qualified people on the planet to run actually run academia. Anyone who runs for senate in PA or thinks a R can win after the worst politcal candidate in US history who had the worst debate in history supposedly “won” is an idiot. Dont give me candidate quality. The dems were hell bent on taking the senate and did not care how blatantly obviously the steal was they were going to do it.
DO NOT accept that we can only win five seats. It’s more like three to eight seats in a fair to good year.
Senate seats we can flip in 2024:
WV - likely R
MT, OH - toss-up
AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI - leans D
MN, NJ, NM, VA - likely D
In a fair year, we pick up WV, MT and OH - plus 3
In a good year, we also pick up MI, NV, PA and WI - plus 8
In a great year, we also pick up MN, NJ, NM and VA - plus 12
TX is the least secure of our seats, and it’s likely R
We came within 1 point of winning the statewide popular vote in Virginia state senate races. If we force them to defend the final four states on the above list, even if we don’t win any of those races, we divert resources from the first eight states, increasing our chances there. But, I’m thinking we can pick-up one or more of the final four seats depending on factors such as how could the year is for us, and the quality of our candidate in those particular races.
Pennsylvania and Arizona on the list? LOL. But I suppose miracles do sometimes happen.
Nevada isn’t on the list? Is Nevada so far gone that a ditzy freshman ultra-liberal is totally safe? Even granting that the effectiveness of Democrat vote fraud in that state is just about tops in the field, this should still be quite close unless the NVGOP backstabs its own nominee (which they certainly will if the nominee is Jim Marchant or — probably — Sam Brown).
One big problem which is likely to go unsolved, is that Rosen has all the money in the world to campaign with and the GOP candidates have damn near nothing by comparison. That’s a good formula for defeat.
There isn’t going to be a 2024 election. But even if there was what would change if the GOP got 4-5 RINOs elected? No we are likely going to experience a pause and a clean out of both houses of congress. Then later new elections.
West Virginia Joe Manchin Blue to Red
Montana . Jon Tester Blue to Red
Ohio Sherrod Brown Blue to Red
Arizona Kyrsten Sinema Blue to Red
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Blue to Red
For those not inclined to read the article which refers to the seats likely to flip, not the democrat seats likely to flip. So are there no vulnerable Republicans?
Retiring from public office, 2024
Joe Manchin Democrat West Virginia November 9, 2023
Laphonza Butler Democrat California October 19, 2023
Debbie Stabenow Democrat Michigan January 5, 2023
Ben Cardin Democrat Maryland May 1, 2023
Tom Carper Democrat Delaware May 22, 2023
Mitt Romney Republican Utah September 13, 2023
Incumbents seeking other offices
Mike Braun Republican Indiana November 30, 2022 Running for governor, 2024
The full list of states that have senate elections is:
Arizona Independent Kyrsten Sinema
California Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein
Connecticut Democratic Party Christopher Murphy
Delaware Democratic Party Thomas Carper
Florida Republican Party Rick Scott
Hawaii Democratic Party Mazie Hirono
Indiana Republican Party Mike Braun
Maine Independent Angus King
Maryland Democratic Party Benjamin Cardin
Massachusetts Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren
Michigan Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow
Minnesota Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar
Mississippi Republican Party Roger Wicker
Missouri Republican Party Josh Hawley
Montana Democratic Party Jon Tester
Nebraska Republican Party Deb Fischer
Nebraska (Special) Republican Party Pete Ricketts
Nevada Democratic Party Jacky Rosen
New Jersey Democratic Party Robert Menendez
New Mexico Democratic Party Martin Heinrich
New York Democratic Party Kirsten Gillibrand
North Dakota Republican Party Kevin Cramer
Ohio Democratic Party Sherrod Brown
Pennsylvania Democratic Party Robert Casey
Rhode Island Democratic Party Sheldon Whitehouse
Tennessee Republican Party Marsha Blackburn
Texas Republican Party Ted Cruz
Utah Republican Party Mitt Romney
Vermont Independent Bernard Sanders
Virginia Democratic Party Tim Kaine
Washington Democratic Party Maria Cantwell
West Virginia Democratic Party Joe Manchin
Wisconsin Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin
Wyoming Republican Party John Barrasso