There is no energy transition. Energy is a fungible commodity. The least expensive and most productive source will always dominate world energy production and consumption.
That’s only partially true. Saudi has VERY low production costs and can crank out huge volumes if it wishes. Their problem is, they need a very high profit to maintain their society. Russia has a similar problem, just somewhat less so, perhaps partially because in many areas their production costs are high, so they never got sucked fully into the “we can profit by 10x” - woohoo! trap.
There is an economic opportunity for insiders and corporations created by the government. If you look into the money that is flowing into carbon capture, carbon credits, and other grifts you will also find the energy transition.
The government has their fat finger on the scales and least expensive is being redefined through that action. I have thought about the actions taken by the political insiders and it is another way to create a market they can be in from the start.
Without the antics by the current administration oil would be under 40 a barrel.