All of the model tracks were developed prior to the first HH flight into the storm. Multiple flights scheduled for today (the first is en route this morning) will either confirm or modify the forecast track and intensity.
A strong hurricane path on the far east part of the cone would be a worse case scenario
And one of the “doomsday” scenarios feared for a land falling Tropical system in the US as far as life and property losses
A NNE moving storm would put the entire Tampa bay metro on the bad side of the storm
Because of the shape of the coastline long stretches of high population From western Tampa and north could get the right eye wall as the center moves just off and up the coast.
This would cause much more wind damage over a wider area then if the storm came in perpendicular because the eyewall only affect a small area
In that case
More importantly SSW winds would funnel a huge surge into Tampa bay
Everything has to line up perfectly but something to keep an eye on
I guess it’s hard to say what the intensity will be right now but it looked like a rather large storm to me.