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WTUS82 KTBW 282125
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Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL102023
525 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida

**IDALIA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
DANGEROUS WINDS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Coastal Citrus, Coastal Hernando, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal
Levy, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Pasco, Inland Citrus, and
Pinellas
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Coastal Sarasota
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Hernando, Inland
Hillsborough, Inland Levy, Inland Manatee, Inland Pasco, and
Sumter
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Inland Sarasota
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
for Coastal Charlotte and Coastal Lee
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for DeSoto, Hardee,
Inland Charlotte, Inland Lee, and Polk

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 550 miles south-southwest of Cedar Key FL or about 450
miles south-southwest of Mouth of Tampa Bay FL
- 21.4N 85.1W
- Storm Intensity 70 mph
- Movement North or 360 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW

Tropical Storm Idalia continues to intensify off of the Yucatan
Coast. Idalia is forecast to move north and eventually northeast
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, making its way towards the Florida
peninsula and intensifying into a major hurricane. Watches and
Warnings remain in effect for West Central and Southwest Florida and
adjacent coastal waters.

The following are the primary hazards of concern with Idalia:

* Storm Surge - Areas across the Nature Coast are forecast to see
extreme life-threatening levels of storm surge, with life- threatening
surge also possible across west-central Florida. The main period of
coastal flooding looks to occur Tuesday afternoon through early
Thursday.

* Wind - Winds will increase Tuesday and remain gusty even after the
storm passes into Thursday. Hurricane force winds are possible across
much of the area and should be what residents prepare for, with
tropical storm force winds possible across the southern zones.

* Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system
is forecast to fall Tuesday and Wednesday. A slight to moderate risk
for flooding is possible, mainly along the coast and across the
northern zones. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher
amounts up to 12 inches is possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across west central and southwest Florida. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across west central and southwest Florida. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across west central and southwest Florida. Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across west central and southwest Florida. Potential impacts
include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and boats tossed about. Dangerous
projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 290859
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Radar data from western Cuba indicates that Idalia is becoming
better organized. Most of an eyewall has formed, with much more
curvature in the banding features and overall radar pattern.
Satellite imagery also shows the center of Idalia firmly within the
central dense overcast. Thus, the initial wind speed is raised to
65 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB satellite classification.

The hurricane is accelerating northward this morning, now moving at
about 9 kt. Idalia should move faster to the north or
north-northeast through landfall on Wednesday between mid-level
ridging over Florida and a trough dropping into the western Gulf of
Mexico. There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance.
After Idalia leaves the eastern United States coastline, the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain and little change was made to the
previous forecast.

With an inner core now present, the stage is set for Idalia to
rapidly intensify before landfall. Shear should continue to lower
over the cyclone as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and ridging builds closer to the cyclone. These
changes, combined with extremely warm and deep waters the hurricane
will be traversing, all strongly point to rapid intensification.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is
increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall
Wednesday along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of western Cuba and
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia beginning today
into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 23.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 24.9N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0600Z 33.9N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake