Hurricane Idalia - Gulf of Mexico

NHC/NOAA ^ | 26 August 2023 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Depression 10 has formed between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Tip of Cuba. Governor DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties in advance of the system.

Mash graphics to enlarge. All graphics and links are self-updating

NHC Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

[NautiNurse]

The radar loop at the top of the thread has a forecast track line. The jog W is evident in there. In fact, it moved into the next county W. One more jog like that and I’ll take a rain check on bugging out to visit Mom tomorrow. ;o)

[NautiNurse]

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Indian Pass FL.
The Hurricane Warning has also been extended westward to Indian Pass.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from west of Indian Pass
westward to Mexico Beach.

The Storm Surge Watch along the southeast coast of
the United States has been extended northward to South Santee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the southeast coast of the United States has been
extended northward to South Santee River.


500 PM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 35 MI SSW of the Western Tip of Cuba
About 265 MI SSW of the Dry Tortugas
Max Sustained Winds...70 MPH
Moving...N at 8 MPH
Minimum Pressure...987 MB

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
from the center.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[NautiNurse]

Thank you!

[janetjanet998]

right now it’s on the “best” possible path as far as the eye and and right eye wall moving over the smallest population along the coast

but keep in mind that two rapidly strengthening notable storms with a similar trajectory,
Charley and Ian, both veered sharply right within the last 24 hours

[janetjanet998]

18z GFS model run no change from 12Z

[rodguy911]

I think forward speed will be key in this storm if its really rolling along makes a huge difference the deadly ones are the ones that roll at 5mph or less.
Tomorrow I think will be key when it hits that super hot water in the Gulfstream and the Gulf,no telling how quick it will grow.

[TornadoAlley3]

Any shear going to get in it’s way?

[rodguy911]

From what I have heard shear is light but NN is the one for that stuff. She’s on it all the time, no one better.

[chuck allen]

Why is there a NautiNurse.com website in my Safari history? I’ve never been to such a website,, only here to keep up on the storm. I something on this FR thread giving me a tracking cookie by chance? A map, graphic?

[numberonepal]

18z GFS model run no change from 12Z

I checked them all on tidbits and the only changes I can see are north/south and not east west shifts. All are pretty much converging Apalachee Bay which is sparsely populated on the coast. Tally could always use a good cleansing. LOL.

[NautiNurse]

I don’t use tracking cookies. I do save a lot of images on my website, which frequently get posted on FR. But I don’t track with cookies.

[numberonepal]

I shoulda left a link to Tropical Tidbits:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

From there you can access all the models they track under the “Hurricane” tab. Choose the model, then choose “Idalia 10L”.

Note: not all models run out to the time of landfall.

[NautiNurse]

Sheer will not be an issue for strengthening.

[musicman]

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[numberonepal]

If FR is pulling images into it from your site the browser history will show that NautiNurse.com was visited.

[chuck allen]

Something on this thread is giving me a nautinurse.com website hit without me clicking on a thing except this thread title. I erase the nautinurse.com from site history and come back and click on this thread and threre it is back in my history. Why is that I wonder? Fiddlesticks used to do that on Freepathon threads.

[fatima]

The weather Channel is on Red Bull.

[chuck allen]

Nautinurse.com resolves to a non existent webpage.

[NautiNurse]

I'm going to guess it is the "Surf's Up" image posted on probably every page of the thread. It is hosted on my website.

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

The weather Channel is on Red Bull.

~~~~~~ all of them fitflol