Posted on 08/26/2023 1:59:11 PM PDT by rdl6989
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.2 West. The depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is expected through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast and portions of the Southeast by mid- to late next week.
(Excerpt) Read more at nhc.noaa.gov ...
Ping.
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become
better organized today. Radar observations show a circulation has
developed, although surface observations indicate that the western
semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time. Given
the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Ten. Surface synoptic observations suggest that
the current intensity is around 25 kt.
The current motion estimate is nearly stationary. There is a
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical
cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in
weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little
motion is predicted during that period. After that time, a
mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone.
This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3
days. Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as
the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. The
official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus guidance.
The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.
Here at the OBX NC, I’m thinking about hurricane Franklin at this point. It’s soon to be a Cat ‘M’. Supposed to turn north by Tue.
Tuesday night - 10 pm - 2 am.....probably making landfall in the Florida panhandle.
Coverage also over here > https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4178003/posts
The FL preparedness sales tax holiday starts today and ends September 8.
Here’s a list of the sales tax exempt items.
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