Posted on 08/16/2023 7:50:28 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
In my mind, there’s a difference between a “stock market downturn” and a “crash”.
Is this yet another phony headline?
He might have been 2 years +/- early, and his hedge fund was down close to 30% at bottom. He lost a lot of big investors who demanded their accounts redeemed. That must have been exquisitely uncomfortable. Of course all this was happening while his compadres were making serious bank on the seemingly neverending ascent of the MBS market. I do not know if he had significant carry costs while his funds were struggling, or if he just purchased fixed-cost puts that he watched, sickeningly, as they relenetlessly eroded in value. Could have been both.
Got it. Thanks for the background.
If the price of bread goes up solely due to inflation, then so does the price of stock. That is until you have to sell the stock to buy the bread.
Please share the square footage of each property so we can properly admire your ostentatiousness.
so how long are the expiration dates of these put options? are they LEAPS and this guy is betting long term, or are they regular put options and he’s expecting some kind of short term downside in the market ... either way, the market doesn’t have to crash for him to make money, but simply go down some ...
What’s the time-decay (theta) of his position?
Does he need the market to crash by September, or can he afford to wait until 2024?
It must be $1.6 billion on the underlying asset.
If he paid for $1.6 billion in puts he is going to be the richest man in the world if this works out.
Yeah.
Typically, it takes longer than you can afford to stand behind your bet.
Regards,
And I’m betting the Treasury and FRBs can devalue the currency faster than the market can fall.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
I hear ya.
A lot of people around these parts are going to be disappointed when the stock market DOESN’T crash or the recession/depression DOESN’T materialize.
Bill Maher caught a lot of flack when he said he was rooting for a recession so that Trump will lose the election. That is just but one reason I am not buying his new turnaround. That said, are a lot of people (primarily the Only Trumpers) who feel the same way today with Biden in office.
I am in semi retirement now and will eventually have to live off my investment earnings and SS. While there is no way in hell I would ever vote democrat, I sure as hell ain’t rooting for an economic collapse. That would be flat out stoopid. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
The drop will happen sometime between the Jewish holidays of Rosh HaShana and Sukkot or a just a short time after Sukkot at the latest.
Are you betting $1.6 billion?…
I understand your point.
I’ll see what details I can find.
If I can find any…
“Please share the square footage of each property so we can properly admire your ostentatiousness.”
That was a well deserved pie to the face!
I’m betting all I got, just like Burry. The numbers are bit different tho.
But he won’t lose the full 1.6 since it’s just an option.
Good on you. I was more being a smartass than not.
Not many have anywhere near that to manage.
I don’t get timing as I thought it would crash already.
What’s the saying,”the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Isn’t he just hedging his portfolio against a medium term market drop? Buying puts is like renting a time-out from the market while leaving your existing investments in place.
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