Posted on 06/27/2023 8:51:59 AM PDT by backpacker_c
2024 National Republican Primary
• Trump — 57% (+38) • DeSantis — 19
all others under 7%
2024 Presidential Election Poll
(R) Trump 44% (+3) (D) Biden 41% . (D) Biden 42% (+2) (R) DeSantis 40%
Link to presidential poll
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1673647399833567232
And of course, the usual desantis excuses, but it seems to primarily be
Trump runs desantis as vp, then there will be america first for 8 more years after Trump
Trump vs biden loses, but desantis is up over biden, so desantis has to be the republican candidate
desantis couldn't win election to be dog pooper picker upper....
opps... should be
desantis couldn’t win election to be dog pooper picker upper after what he’s done this election....
Oh my. My, my my.
Look at what we have here.
It’s Trump or bust for most Republicans.
What will be the NEW excuses our Anti-Trumpers here?
GO TRUMP GO
Within the margin of fraud. Trump will have to expand his lead to have a chance of winning.
Assuming that Biden is 1) alive, 2) not in a nursing home, and 3) on the ballot.
Ok, here we go. More grist for the mill, as we see fighting over this Trump vs DeSantis situation.
None of it matters. The steal is in place. They got away with it in 2020. They got away with it in 2022. They will get away with it in 2024. Mitch McConnell and Mike McCarthy will do nothing. They will say nothing.
lol....
Polls must be so bleak, that the desantis supporters are giving up attacking them.
Instead, all they do is attack Trump and Trump supporters, as if that will win people over to desantis
As if anyone would trust desantis, a lying, deceitful, currupt, deep swamp rino support politician
I think too many people are skeptical of how Trump can beat Biden in 2024 since he lost the same race in 2020. I think the 2008 and 2012 elections are a good basis for understanding what would likely happen in a re-match:
Obama Biden 2008-12= Popular 69-65M/ 365-332 EVs
Republicans 2008-12= Popular 60-61M/ 173-206 EVs
Obama Biden lost 4Milliion votes from 2008 to 2012. This is a natural function of media complex over promising democrats. Public discovers they are not as advertised and votes in the second round define.
Obama and Biden lost 33 electoral votes from 2008 to 2012. That is about 8%.
In many respects Trump’s chances are better than the 2012 rematch for Romney. Biden’s economy in 2023 is not a recovery economy like that of 2009 to 2012 coming back from a terrible recession in 2008. Biden’s economy is teetering on the edge of recession and painfully inflationary. Biden has a much clearer negative record in 2024 than he had in 2012 or 2020.
States lost by Obama Biden from 2008:
Indiana
North Carolina
Nebraska -1
Lost six percent of electoral votes (33 votes)
Extrapolating to 2020-2024
2020
DNC: EV 303/ 81M Popular
RNC: EV 235 74M Popular
2024
DNC: EV 270/ 76M Popular
RNC: EV 268/ 75M Popular
Key states for Trump to win in 2024:
Georgia
Arizona
Wisconsin
Nevada
I just don’t know where GOP goes to pick up states whether its Trump, DeSantis or someone else. Christie wouldn’t win NJ. Scott & Nikki are from safely GOP SC. I am not convinced Lake, who narrowly lost, would help Trump win AZ. Depends on how people feel about her election challenges there.
There absolutely has to be a better effort to bank ballots not just get out the vote on election day.
I think there does need to be specific state efforts exactly where you note.
It’s hard to measure. I think trump is likely to win Georgia and Wisconsin. They were that close.
I think the ballot theft was an outgrowth of anti trump zeal. I think that will be slightly less motivation will exist to put Biden back in.
Right now I think trump loses 270-268. But that just needs one more electoral vote.
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