It’s about two Divisions, or maybe three in Russian terms. These are, moreover, combat units, not the REMFs that make up most armies. It seems to be that Russia is having trouble putting together an opposing force.
It also depends on whether what they are doing turns into a “preference cascade” event. That’s when other Army units choose to join the parade, or stand aside.
Sort of what happened when Napoleon returned from Elba in 1815 with 1500 men. A month later he was in Paris, running France again.
Or when Franco flew a few battalions of the Army of Africa to Sevilla in 1936; a tiny portion of the official Spanish conscript Army, but his men were professionals.
Etc. History is full of similar cases.
No guarantees, these things are gambles. That’s why Caesar said “alea jacta est”.
Good point