[marktwain]

Coups never succeed without the army’s backing.

If this one is not fake, it will be squelched rapidly.

It is hard to tell if the army backs the coup, or not, until it succeeds or fails. It is usually a few commanders which make the difference.

Intermediate states include relatively prolonged civil war.

[Zhang Fei]

Ukraine ping

marktwain: [It is hard to tell if the army backs the coup, or not, until it succeeds or fails. It is usually a few commanders which make the difference.

Intermediate states include relatively prolonged civil war.]

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I’d argue there is no unitary army, as such - just a motley collection of commanders whose support is potentially up for grabs. It comes down to whether Prigozhin is seen as a credible contender and whether he offers potential supporters among the High Command a better deal than Putin. Assuming they don’t think Prigozhin will harm them or treat them any worse than Putin, most commanders will likely stay neutral. Where they’re indifferent between the major contenders, commanders don’t take sides in civil conflicts until a clear victor emerges. Because you never really know the loyalties of your subordinates, and all it takes is one assassin who’s made his peace with a one-way mission.

Prigozhin has proven his mettle through Wagner’s superior performance relative to the regulars in Ukraine. To the extent they think (1) he’s a potential winner and (2) he will give them a fairer shake than Putin, some will side with him. That’s why Prigozhin kept broadcasting his wins - he saw the day that Putin might move against him.

Being known as a winner is critical to attracting support. No matter how noble the cause - and this is just a struggle for power - to join anyone in armed revolt is rolling the dice with your life and the lives of everyone you know. Potential recruits for the revolt want the best odds possible.

To the extent that support penetrates Putin’s inner circle, the day could come that Putin is “arrested” and paraded in public as the evil genius behind the “criminal aggression” in Ukraine. At which point every crime under the sun is allocated to Putin, and he’s brought, bound and trussed, to the Hague. That way, Prigozhin or whomever follows Putin can give the West an excuse to lift sanctions on Russia, impose some nominal amount of reparations and return to making money from each other as they did antebellum.