50/50 chance. But I think it's more likely that Putin won't invade. On the other hand, he may have thought that Trump would have been unlikely to intervene to help the Ukrainians.
I don’t think Putin would have invaded.
He would not have had the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan to indicate incompetence at the highest levels of command to inspire him.
As for money, while this administration has waved about huge numbers, I seriously doubt more than a small fraction of that is getting to Ukraine in cash. There is a big difference between pledging $XX in arms and actually delivering anything.