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Why Oil Prices Are Plunging Despite Falling Inventories
Oilprice ^ | May 03, 2023 | Alex Kimani

Posted on 05/06/2023 9:03:03 PM PDT by nickcarraway

Oil prices have lately lost their forward momentum, with both Brent and WTI crude plunging this week. A rather puzzling trend is being observed in the oil markets: there’s a big disconnect between inventory data and oil prices.

Crude oil inventories have fallen below the five-year average for the first time this year. Last week, implied gasoline demand rose by 992 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) w/w to a 15-month high of 9.511mb/d, taking the month-to-date y/y increase. Despite this positive inventory data, WTI prices have declined from $83.26 per barrel on April 12 to $68.85 on May 3 while Brent prices have declined from $87.33 to $72.54 per barrel over the timeframe.

Normally, U.S. inventories and oil prices have a strong inverse relationship, with falling inventories pushing prices higher while rising inventories have the opposite effect. However, large inventory draws over the past couple of weeks have failed to prevent significant price falls. As commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have noted, these dislocations tend to be temporary and come at times when prices are moved primarily by other oil market fundamentals, expectations, broader asset markets and financial flows. In this case, recent optimism regarding OPEC+ production cuts has failed to counter worries about demand linked to a weakening economic backdrop and a hawkish Federal Reserve leading to oil prices remaining range-bound. Further, there are reports that Russian crude shipments remain strong despite sanctions and embargoes: Reuters reported April oil loadings from Russia's western ports are on track to reach their highest since 2019 at more than 2.4M bbl/day.

(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: oil; prices; supply
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1 posted on 05/06/2023 9:03:03 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

Cuz the market predicts a recession looming.


2 posted on 05/06/2023 9:05:48 PM PDT by crusty old prospector
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To: nickcarraway

The price at the pump is not falling around my area.


3 posted on 05/06/2023 9:06:14 PM PDT by Revel
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To: nickcarraway

$4.99/gallon in Phoenix is falling? Really?


4 posted on 05/06/2023 10:02:10 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("If you can’t say something nice . . . say the Rosary." [Red Badger])
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To: Revel

$3.25/gal a couple of weeks ago. Now around $2.89-2.94/gal. We’ve seen plenty of people out and about at the stores and restaurants.


5 posted on 05/06/2023 10:10:09 PM PDT by CatOwner (Don't expect anyone, even conservatives, to have your back when the SHTF in 2021 and beyond.)
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To: nickcarraway

Big Mike, aka The Wookie, showed up?


6 posted on 05/06/2023 10:16:13 PM PDT by Cobra64 (Common sense isn’t common anymore.)
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To: nickcarraway

And Biden is still draining the SPR, at an even faster rate - at a time when they were supposed to be re-filling it.


7 posted on 05/06/2023 10:30:47 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: crusty old prospector

The recession started over a year ago.


8 posted on 05/06/2023 10:33:44 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: Dr. Sivana

Wow. It’s less than that around here.


9 posted on 05/06/2023 10:34:11 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

Phoenix is expensive, especially in spring. I think it has to do with having a special formulation for a valley.


10 posted on 05/06/2023 10:38:33 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("If you can’t say something nice . . . say the Rosary." [Red Badger])
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To: Revel

Where I live, our price directly reflected the price per barrel of West Texas Sweet Crude oil in dollars, in the price per litre of gasoline i.e one dollar per barrel was one penny per litre.

Somewhere in the last 5 years there has been a huge disconnect.

This evening, the price per litre in CDN money is $1.86/litre. It just went up by 13 cents LAST WEEK!


11 posted on 05/06/2023 11:09:17 PM PDT by Don W (When blacks riot, neighborhoods and cities burn. When whites riot, nations and continents burn)
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To: Revel
Or mine. $3.45 a gallon on The Jersey Shore. I'm sure after school lets out in June it'll go higher with all the folks who'll be coming down here.

A sirloin at my local supermarket is $16.99 a pound. All I can afford to do is look at it.

12 posted on 05/06/2023 11:34:13 PM PDT by jmacusa (Liberals. Too stupid to be idiots. )
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To: Dr. Sivana

high fuel prices are where democrats and rinocrats skim their money to run their campaigns for re election.... can’t ever start too soon, now can we?

rofl


13 posted on 05/07/2023 12:27:55 AM PDT by MIA_eccl1212 (When the bad guys have leverage they use it)
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To: Dr. Sivana

The special formulation is across the US.


14 posted on 05/07/2023 1:05:02 AM PDT by joesbucks
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To: nickcarraway

The price of gasoline in my state has gone UP, so who is getting the differential $?


15 posted on 05/07/2023 1:56:08 AM PDT by Highest Authority (DemonRats are pure EVIL)
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To: nickcarraway

Oil prices are affected the opposite today of what they were several years ago. I remember any little thing setting off a spike in oil prices, because, as the media put it, it was a CRISIS. Now, when war breaks out over there, the Iranians seize two tankers or something else breaks out that would have normally sent prices up, prices fall. It PROVES almost all major market moves are merely manipulations to steal money from the lower levell echelons of society somehow.


16 posted on 05/07/2023 4:18:35 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: CatOwner

Diesel is 325 around east tn now. Gas at 299.


17 posted on 05/07/2023 4:22:03 AM PDT by Dandy (Drain the swamp baby!!!)
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To: nickcarraway
If you own a small business you don't have to wonder what is going on. There is NO DEMAND for anything!!

When you go into the post office and they complain about no one coming in you know something is real wrong.!!

18 posted on 05/07/2023 4:59:58 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!!)
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To: nickcarraway

Because there will be lower supply needs Jin the next 90-180 days?

It’s not complicated.


19 posted on 05/07/2023 5:11:35 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: nickcarraway

Gasoline in my town in Alabama has gone down about 20 cents over the past month. We were at $3.39 now down to $3.19.

If I go to the new Buckee’s in Auburn it’s only $2.99!


20 posted on 05/07/2023 5:13:00 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (Gov't declaring misinformation is tyranny: “Who determines what false information is?” )
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