I would suggest you watch videos on YouTube by a guy who calls his company Reventure Consulting. I have no relationship to him whatsoever. I discovered his videos about a year ago. He was the first to call a top to the general US real estate market.
However, ALL real estate is local. So, IF people can afford a house in San Jose, CA it has very little to do with what a house sells for in Madison, WI.
Case/Shiller developed a index about how real estate was affordable based on what the average income was in the metro area. This guy at Reventure Consulting breaks it down by county/metro area. So, while Nashville’s real estate market has already gone down 30% form the top and Boise is down 20% from the top other markets like Manchester/Nashua, NH have continued to go up.
As have markets like Oklahoma City, Louisville, Richmond, Myrtle Beach, and several others.
What he points out are the markets that have boomed over the
last 5 years and have gone up faster than people in that area can afford. Again, some of this has to do with Baby Boomers retiring and moving south. Which is why places like Tampa and Miami continue to go up even though prices are very high in comparison to their incomes in their respective areas.
Real estate markets take more than just a couple quarters to come down. It took five to ten years to go up. It will take 2-4 years to come down.
The income demands are driven by the COST OF HOUSING-—and OTHER COSTS OF LIVING
I remember in the 50’s that Madison COL was 2nd ONLY to WASHINGTON DC.