Posted on 03/27/2023 8:07:45 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
We’re now into the second year of the war in Ukraine, and while support for Ukraine remains strong (if not support for endless military aid to them) we’re reaching the point where virtually everyone wants to see an end to the fighting. Or at least that’s what most of them say in public. The Wall Street Journal has reached the conclusion that Ukraine’s allies see a way that the war could be brought to an end. Or multiple ways. But the problem as they describe it, however, is that nobody has a specific plan to make it happen. Much hope rests on an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring, but even with all of the increasingly powerful military arms and equipment Zelensky continues to receive, few believe that he will be able to deliver enough of a punch to finish the job. (Subscription required)
Western leaders are beginning to have a clearer vision of how they hope the war in Ukraine will end. What is missing is any plan to make it happen.
The hope in Washington and European capitals is that a Ukrainian counteroffensive—boosted by Western tanks and other fresh weaponry—will punch a hole in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory this spring.
In theory, that gives Kyiv’s forces such a battlefield advantage that Russian President Vladimir Putin is nudged into peace talks where the Kremlin cedes at least the territory it has taken since the invasion in February 2022. Then Ukraine is free to anchor its future in the west, and a defeated and diminished Mr. Putin can face the wrath of his own people.
The scenario described above relies on a number of assumptions and is lacking in key specifics. It assumes a Ukrainian spring counteroffensive of ferocious proportions that “punches a hole” in the Russian lines at the eastern end of the country. But the Ukrainians have already punched several holes into Russian-held territory. That hasn’t seemed to deter Vladimir Putin at all and he continues to send conscripts into the fray while blasting the countryside with rockets.
Mention is made of “western tanks and other fresh weaponry.” That would certainly add some punch to Ukraine’s capabilities, but the delivery of any significant number of tanks still appears to be well in the future, possibly not until next year. And almost certainly not quickly enough for a spring offensive. And Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of suggesting a ceasefire where he gives back even the new land Russia has conquered over the past year.
Perhaps that is why the WSJ analysis suggests that the far more likely path will involve “a war of attrition that lasts until one side is so defeated or exhausted that it calls a halt without realizing its ultimate aims.” This is clearly a reference to Ukraine since there is no scenario where the Russian Federation is “defeated” unless Ukraine plans on invading Russian territory, likely triggering the use of tactical nuclear weapons. And what are Ukraine’s “ultimate aims” in this scenario? Ejecting the Russian forces from all of its territories, of course. Or at least all of the territory it controlled prior to the invasion.
It’s also worth noting that the WSJ points out that the “war of attrition” scenario would almost certainly be measured in years, not weeks or months. How long will the patience (not to mention the pocketbooks) of Ukraine’s allies last? Yes, Joe Biden and most of the swamp dwellers in Washington continue to say “as long as it takes.” But what if it takes years?
The WSJ then raises the prickly question of what should be done about Putin even if the war does shut down in some fashion.
There is broad agreement that Ukraine ought to be given the means to deter a future Russian invasion, either as part of NATO or in some kind of pact with the alliance.
But French President Emmanuel Macron and some allies have said they are wary of humiliating Russia and want the West to offer Ukraine security assurances that Russia can live with. Others instead want to see Russia’s military permanently degraded.
It’s a rare day when you’ll hear me say this, but Macron is probably making a valid point. If Putin is “humiliated” too much on the world stage, he will become increasingly likely to do something erratic. And as far as making Ukraine part of NATO to deter future attacks goes, has everyone forgotten that talk of Ukraine potentially joining NATO was one of Putin’s key complaints in the first place?
Everyone quoted in the article seems to agree that Putin believes that time is on his side. The Prime Minister of Poland notes that the United States (at least as long as Joe Biden is in charge) will refuse to allow Ukraine to fall. But he continues by saying that he is more worried about his Western European partners and friends “because they are less patient.” When he says something like that, we should probably pay attention.
I’ve tried to game this situation out in my head more times than I can count. And it’s becoming increasingly clear (at least to me) that there’s one reason that nobody is proposing a comprehensive solution that ends this war with Ukraine achieving “victory.” It’s because no such solution exists. And if that’s the case, a more realistic plan will be required and that may mean that Russia doesn’t walk away empty-handed.
Wrong on all counts. The great Russian Depression took place in between 1992-2001, with two peaks in 1993 and 1998.
Communists were a thing in the 1990s because life was better when they were in charge. They ceased to be a thing in 200s because Putinomics worked better.
This shop sailed, it is said that Xi refuses Biden’s phone call for weeks, Putin have nothing to talk with Biden about, after being called war criminal.
The Chinese are dumping the US bonds like crazy, Russia has no trade with the US left to speak of.
Dummy you left out the most important part === Don’t poke the bear
“This shop sailed, it is said that Xi refuses Biden’s phone call for weeks, ......:”
AI stinks
If I teach you English, will you teach me Chinese? The Russ language will be obsolete after Pute shoots his wad.
It’s like global warming everybody has a wish list very few people really know the science. It doesn’t work that way.
Piss off AI generated clown
I have a plan, Russia stops its invasion and leaves.
Don’t be surprised when the Operatives show up to claim that the documented history of our involvement there is all lies.
“3) Exit the START treaty and get serious about nuclear testing.”
The problem with nuclear testing is that Russia will do the same, and it won’t be underground. In fact, they’ll likely invite the Western Media to watch some demonstrations.
...and then the Leftists that claim war with Russia is a good thing will be reminded of their past, their college years, when they violently opposed nuclear war.
...and with that, their war in Ukraine will FINALLY come to an end.
So no, there won’t be any nuclear testing...they know what that means to their Ukraine project.
First some history we are no where near the munitions fired in ww1 and second Finland and Sweden bring a huge piece to the puzzle. Finland has an enormous reserve force that can be brought up quickly, and Sweden has a strong Air Force and naval capacities
He held back because he expected to occupy quickly and didn’t want the reconstruction costs. His ”strategic “ bombing has accomplished nothing but maybe to prove that he had no concern for Ukrainians
As to production, Russia is not the Soviet Union, gone are the days of producing 1000s of anything. T-14!is a joke, t-90 is not much more than a t-72, has been destroyed in Ukraine in large enough numbers that they have pulled them(bad for marketing), largely it is Russia that is being demilitarized and they continue to fight only because of Soviet inheritance and they are blowing through that quickly, and aid from norks and Iran perhaps China. Not a strong position if they are independent as you said
The weapons the west is “using up” were intended to defeat Russian/soviet aggression and that is what they are doing
Russia will take decades if at all to rebuild their military no matter the end of this war
Show me proof that NATO desired regime change,
This is all about Putin and his dreams of glory
RE: I have a plan, Russia stops its invasion and leaves.
Yes, that’s the solution, the only drawback to that is Putin will have to be utterly defeated for that to happen. I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
There are 2 specific plans to end the war, Shaw.
1. Russian leave all of Ukraine and Crimea.
2. Military defeat of Russian forces.
3. Everything else is a non-starter.
Whoa!
Here's whey. US/NATO started this war when they reneged on the promise not to expand NATO in the '90s -- and then promptly turned around and doubled the size of NATO. Then they proceeded to place missiles right on Russia's doorstep. And then, in the ensuing twenty-plus years, they launched initiative after initiative to continue the aggression.
Putin woke up and said, "enough is enough." We'll stop this right now. This was after his peace offer (immediately before the special military operation), which was soundly rejected by the west.
So, you see, that's why it is a regime change for US/NATO, and it is halting aggression and protecting one's country for the Ruskies.
That is, sending out the military to stop the assault -- as we did in 1961 when the Ruskies got too cozy with Cuba by placing missiles on our border (right on OUR doorstep).
You see. It's not that complicated. Is it?
Actually, I’m not wrong. The thread you shared ignores many details.
Details like, From 1997 to early 2014, NATO deployed virtually no combat forces on the territory of its new members.
That changed following Russia’s use of military force to seize Crimea and its involvement in the conflict in Donbas in eastern Ukraine in March and April 2014. Even then, NATO moved to deploy, on a rotating basis, multinational battlegroups numbering 1,000-1,600 troops in each of the three Baltic states and Poland—no more than tripwire forces.
As for advancing NATO to Russia’s borders, a point Putin kept bringing up, he of course conveniently ignores the fact that five current NATO members border on Russia or the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (this does not include Finland, which requested membership only in May 2022).
Of the five current members, the last to join the Alliance, the three Baltic states, did so in 2004. That was 18 years ago. Putin did not raise a fuss then. He started making it an issue ONLY AFTER his invasion of Crimea and sanctions started.
No Russian aggression, no sanctions, no need to fear NATO. So, you’re analyzing it backwards. If Russia under Putin did not show any aggression, NATO would not even think of any hostility towards Russia. The EU was in a normal way, trading with Russia for her energy and even helping build the Nordstream. Sadly, Putin destroyed all of that with his aggression.
Wrong!
Trump has a plan!
As this thread goes past 50 + comments, it seems to prove the title of the article. Pro-Ukraine or pro-Russia, pro-Zelenksy and pro-Biden or pro-Putin, the stances all come to one's view. And none are an actual "solution" as a specific plan excepting the "Ruskie go home," which isn't happening, irrespective of views herein expressed.
What is assured that the snide remarks as shown by some against others in this thread is that FR -- at least as regards the war between two non-NATO entities -- is become Facebook or other social media. Invective and insult are not debate tactics nor winning arguments. And so, the title of the article posted is demonstrated.
"Everyone thinks they have a 'solution' to end the war in Ukraine but nobody has a specific plan to make it happen."
So Ukraine clinched the deal on Russian regime change, got it
Not poland, not Lithuania, not etonia or Latvia (and now Finland) but big bad Ukraine
The result of this is a much weakened Russia, the cloak is off as well on their military”might”, NATO is expanding, and more then likely Russian federation will dissolve, China grabs the east, Belarus has regime change and joins NATO and who know tiny remaining Russia might apply for NATO membership
Well done Putin you fell for the globullist’s trap
Well, yes.
That should be obvious, even to you, illiterate moron.
Regime change in the US needs to happen, then Ukraine can be restored as a buffer state once again.
Actually the globalists fell into their own trap, petro dollar going going gone, BRICS rise, hatred of west intensifies. How foolish we are by our dishonest, cheating, lying politicians.
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