“On the topic of Taiwan, Gave offers yet more positive predictions. He argues that an invasion of Taiwan will never happen for a number of reasons, above all topographical ones: “Taiwan is a natural fortress”. A hundred miles of sea stand between it and China, and it has mountains reaching 12,000 feet and only three beaches to choose from. “Are you going to try to do this with an army, a navy and an air force that is completely untested? No, there’s no way.”
This is true.
The situation is complicated by another truth - about 35% of the Taiwanese population is sympathetic to PRC and would like to unite.
I wonder what the percentage would be if they thought their alternatives were (1) resist reunification and get their chip plants bombed by Americans in the event a Chinese invasion appeared imminent, or (2) welcome reunification with flowers if offered favorable terms and get to keep their chip plants.
Hmm. This plan to bomb the chip plants, if real, and if seriously believed by both the Chinese and Taiwanese, might actually push the Chinese to offer more favorable terms to Taiwan and for the Taiwanese to accept those terms.
Here’s an interesting piece I just now ran across:
https://asia.nikkei.com/static/vdata/infographics/xi-jinpings-37-year-plan-for-taiwan-reunification/
Of course you have to squint through the bias (as you do with nearly everything you read), but has some interesting tidbits.