Re: 38 - Actually I do get it. We just see the matter differently.
You make a lot of assumptions, but we all do when we predict.
I don’t believe President Trump’s incumbency does roll forward. He’s going to have to win the nomination. It’s just the way it is.
Looking at the multiple threads being posted about how Deep State types like Jeb Bush, etc, have nice things not say about DeSantis and the resulting comments from people that conclude that that means DeSantis is Deep State, it’s a bit of a stretch to conclude they will gladly vote for him in 2028.
And how big is the MAGA “base”? Please don’t say ~81 million voters as that is not the base. How big is the MAGA base?
You do realize that there’s FReepers that say they will vote for President Trump and no other Republican for President in 2024 - even if that means the Republican nominee loses.
I hope President Trump wins the nomination. But he has to win it.
I’m not one of those that says DeSantis is deep state or even globalist. I like DeSantis.
It is out of respect that I assume he will wait until 2028 - it’s the smart play, and he’s a smart guy.
But more than being smart, it’s really his conservatism that I believe will cause him to wait, and here’s why: He would have to pick a “lane”’other than the MAGA lane President Trump already owns.
The problem is, DeSantis is conservative at heart. He is MAGA. If he picked any other lane then he would be going his own heart. Even though he’s not a globalist or a NeoCon, he would have to court them to oppose Trump.
I think he will choose instead to follow MAGA, and wait his turn.
Another dynamic that makes me pretty confident of my prediction is the “signaling” that both Trump and DeSantis are doing.
For a year, DeSantis has been signaling that he would be interested in running in 2024, but he never said he was running an only sent up trial balloons. Why? This tells me he wanted to see what Trump’s reaction would be. Maybe Trump would decide he’s had enough, and that DeSantis would be a good MAGA prodigy.
Well, that’s not what happened. Trump immediately signaled that he would run and that it would be a fight. How did DeSantis react to that? Did he begin carving out a lane for himself? Did he begin to differentiate himself from Trump, and show how his policies would be better?
Not at all. In fact, he is echoing everything Trump says. This tells me he is not going to challenge in 2024.
But you are right, these are just my opinions.