Posted on 03/03/2023 11:00:53 AM PST by marcusmaximus
The critical figure is not Russian oil revenue. The critical figure is gov’t revenue from oil sales, which is taken from profit margin.
You can sell the Chinese all the Russian oil you want. If you aren’t making a profit on it, long term it doesn’t help finance your war.
The Chinese are pretty happy, though.
Yeah, IMO Saudi has the opportunity to put a big hurtin’ on Russia (take out a competitor for several years) if they choose to do so.
Putin asked China and India to give up the 30% discounts and they told him no.==
You continue to repeat this BS although I gave you a link with article from Oilprice.com which absolutely rejects your saying. But still continue. WHY? Are you so stubborn?
C’mon man the reality will win anyways)))..
Putin has impoverished Russia like Chavez impoverished Venezuela.
“And they have dealt a devastating financial blow not only to Russia but also to Western Europe “
No, western Europe is not dealt a “devastating financial blow”, not even Germany.
And some places like the Netherlands or Spain are only mildly affected
Ouch.
A couple months like that and they will need horses.
China and India are bragging about the 30-40% discounts. They told Putin he has to accept marketplace realities. Hilarious!
Do you mean oil is down 50% from its multi-year high? It’s price now seems more reasonable considering all factors, but wonder when the war is over if oil will shave another $20.
China and India are bragging about the 30-40% discounts. They told Putin he has to accept marketplace realities. Hilarious!==
Stop ukie propaganda and read article: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Academics-Russia-Selling-Oil-Way-Over-Price-Cap.html
Academics from U Cal Berkeley? LOL!
“And they have dealt a devastating financial blow not only to Russia but also to Western Europe “
No, western Europe is not dealt a “devastating financial blow”, not even Germany.
And some places like the Netherlands or Spain are only mildly affected
*********************************************************************
Well, the simple-minded and the ignorant will always be in our midst. See the information in the following linked article.
‘Europe’s spending on energy crisis nears 800 billion euros’:
And the above MASSIVE DIRECT subsidy costs don’t include the additional INDIRECT costs from food and product inflation driven by shortages and the increased costs of oil/natural gas and products dirived from them (e.g., fertilizers).
HEY, A TRILLION HERE, A TRILLION THERE….. SOON IT ADD UP TO REAL MONEY.
New York Post
"Russian oil and gas revenues, the mainstay of state coffers, rose 22.5% in February,"
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/business/russia-oil-embargo.html
By Anatoly Kurmanaev and Stanley Reed
Anatoly Kurmanaev reported from Berlin, and Stanley Reed from London.
New York Times
Feb. 7, 2023
Shunned by the West, Russia was able last year to redirect its potent oil exports to Asia, marshal a fleet of tankers unencumbered by Western penalties and adapt evasion schemes perfected previously by its allies Iran and Venezuela.The strategy worked: President Vladimir V. Putin not only retained but also increased money from energy exports, according to official data, and may have brought in more cash, collected in the shadows of the oil trade, that could be helping the war effort.
Russian energy revenue down 46% in 12 months despite February jump
From your link
The Russian government stopped reporting economic indicators shortly after sanctions were imposed. No one is really sure what the actual state of the Russian economy is outside of Russia, maybe not inside of Russia either. Admitting there was a 48% drop in oil tax revenues compared to last year means the Russian oil industry has declined and is facing such severe problems the Russian government can not cover them up anymore.
Putin has two choices if he wants to prevent this. Either withdraw and pay reparations, or wait until Ukraine forces the Russian army out and pay greater reparations. He has no other options.
And China and India have Putin over the barrel. So to speak.
Russian energy revenue down 46% in 12 months despite February jumpFrom your link
[Headline of your article] Russia’s Oil Revenues Plunged By 48% In February
[Reality]
https://nypost.com/2023/03/03/russian-energy-revenue-rebounds-by-22-5-in-february/
New York Post
"Russian oil and gas revenues, the mainstay of state coffers, rose 22.5% in February,"
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/business/russia-oil-embargo.html
By Anatoly Kurmanaev and Stanley Reed
Anatoly Kurmanaev reported from Berlin, and Stanley Reed from London.
New York Times
Feb. 7, 2023
Shunned by the West, Russia was able last year to redirect its potent oil exports to Asia, marshal a fleet of tankers unencumbered by Western penalties and adapt evasion schemes perfected previously by its allies Iran and Venezuela.The strategy worked: President Vladimir V. Putin not only retained but also increased money from energy exports, according to official data, and may have brought in more cash, collected in the shadows of the oil trade, that could be helping the war effort.
“We find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the impending EU embargo lowered demand.”This is selectively comparing the pre-invasion numbers from the Russian customs service, to post-invasion estimates. Russia stopped reporting economic indicators and there is no freedom of speech in Russia to say anything critical related to the invasion. The video in #39 points out no one knows what the real value of the ruble is to any other currency. These factors make having confidence in basis for comparison impossible.“However,” the report goes on to say, “we do not find crude oil discounts as large as those reflected in Urals prices toward the end of 2022. In particular, prices in market segments that are unaffected by lower European demand, e.g., exports from Russia's Pacific Ocean ports, have not dropped in a meaningful way and shipments do not appear to comply with the price cap.”
As the paper points out, the sanctions have been progressively imposed, which means, their effects are progressive as well. The oil price cap took effect December 5, the paper was published Feb 23. Three months is a a short time for any sanction to have effects. Before the cap took effect, total Russian energy exports were dropping, despite increased sales to non-European countries.
While China and India have had high percentage increases, the amount and value of that increase is a higher cost and lower profit than selling to Europe. China and India have a long term goal of energy independence. The capacity for other countries like China and India to substantially replace Europe will take years to build, when they do not want to become dependent on Russian or any other country's energy exports. Russian sales to China and India are a short term cushion, not a long term solution.
As the article for the thread points out, reported oil tax revenue has dropped 48% compared to last year. Its kind of hard to explain that away as unrelated to sanctions. This paper is comparing previous years apples to a hypothetical model of a orange for this year that no is sure exists.
This is the headline to your NY Post link:
Russian energy revenue down 46% in 12 months despite February jump
This video is very informative on the Russian economic situation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds
Fast forward though some of the first parts. This Yale professor is helping vastly to make sure Western companies leave Putin’s Russia, to economically isolate Russia. He maintains a master list of these companies. He also discusses Russian economic statistics and their oil production and oil/gas revenues.
There was a temporary dip in the export of oil while Russia sought tankers to deliver its oil. The sanctions and price cap do not affect most of the area or population in the world. The new sanctions created a new industry delivering Russian oil. It has recently amassed a 600-tanker fleet with the number continuing to grow.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/business/russia-oil-embargo.html
By Anatoly Kurmanaev and Stanley Reed
Anatoly Kurmanaev reported from Berlin, and Stanley Reed from London.
New York Times
Feb. 7, 2023
Shunned by the West, Russia was able last year to redirect its potent oil exports to Asia, marshal a fleet of tankers unencumbered by Western penalties and adapt evasion schemes perfected previously by its allies Iran and Venezuela.The strategy worked: President Vladimir V. Putin not only retained but also increased money from energy exports, according to official data, and may have brought in more cash, collected in the shadows of the oil trade, that could be helping the war effort.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/russia-oil-shadow-fleet/index.html
As Western sanctions against Russia have escalated over its invasion of Ukraine, more ships have joined an existing fleet of mysterious tankers, ready to facilitate Russia’s oil exports.Industry insiders estimate the size of that “shadow” fleet at roughly 600 vessels, or about 10% of the global number of large tankers. And numbers continue to climb.
[...] As Europe has weaned itself off Russian energy, buyers in Asia have cut deals. China boosted imports of Russian oil to 1.9 million barrels per day on average in 2022, up 19% from 2021, according to the International Energy Agency. India ramped up purchases even more sharply, logging an 800% increase to an average of 900,000 barrels per day.
Russia’s oil exports to China and India both hit record highs in January after Europe’s ban on seaborne Russian oil took effect, according to Kpler, a data and analytics company. Exports to Turkey, another top customer, also continued apace. (The ban on refined oil products did not kick in until February.)
https://www.intellinews.com/how-big-is-russia-s-ghost-fleet-of-oil-tankers-271123/
As bne IntelliNews has already reported, there has been significant leakage with the existing oil sanctions. Dodges like ship-to-ship transfers of oil to hide its origin are already happening, and mixing “crude cocktails”, adding Russian crude to other blends to mask its origin, has also been reported. When Iranian oil was sanctioned it started cutting “compensation deals”, where it would take the sanction-enforced prices, but cut deals with buyers who would then overpay for other non-sanctioned commodities like wheat.
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