“When’s the last time the US fought a modern enemy?”
That’s a broad question. We certainly haven’t fought a near-peer force in decades, but we did in Iraq fight an army equipped with modern equipment, organized along modern principles, etc. After all, we helped organize it. Either way, at least our army has some recent battlefield experience, compared to China which has none to speak of.
“Compared to China, Russia is qualitatively second rate.”
I’d say, in many ways, it’s just the opposite. China has been working hard to reverse that recently, but Russia has always been the more advanced military in terms of technology, and I think that is still strictly true. China’s main advantages are they are in much better economic shape than Russia and they have unlimited manpower. But they have extremely large geopolitical disadvantages that I see no way for them to overcome any time soon.
The total shock and awe overwhelming numbers of Desert Storm is not a true comparison. You’ll have to remember also the incredible shellacking highlighted by Swarzkopt’s daily bomb damage reports the month leading up to the invasion.
The only thing the Chinese really need to worry about America, other than the economic strangle hold they have on us, is our presence in the South and East China Seas. They certainly have the ability, locally, to enforce a blockade of Taiwan. They can certainly sink a US carrier off the coast of Taiwan that was attempting to break the blockade. It would be up to whoever or whatever in DC making these decisions to decide if that action would be the start of WWIII. A sane president wouldn’t. No sanity in DC lately.
Is China building a blue water navy? The last two attempts to compete with British and American dominance of the season were Wilhelm II and Brezhnev. The Battle of Jutland effectively ended the German challenge; shaky Soviet finances and Reagan’s buildup scuttled Russian hopes of a naval rivalry. That being said, no nation has fought a major naval war since 1945. The U.S. may win, but the major powers are moving into uncharted territory.