I don’t know anything about military affairs, we have lots of experts here.
But I read a lot. If I was going to do Taiwan (and they are going to do Taiwan) - I would consider a multi-modality attack to disable or interfere with a possible US response - without killing any civilians.
EMP + ballons carrying electronic packages to block our comms would do the trick. If those ballon payloads are more sophisticated than anything we can do - and they may be - then the EMP may not even be necessary.
I’m going to miss the carriers, though.
Possibly one of the problems for the communist Chinese, is trying figure - despite their assumption that we are idiots - that the U.S.A. is in fact, now so decrepit and unpreprared (particularly in depth).
So, I figure, the communist Chinese are taking the time to verify what seemed unlikely 30 years ago.
One question the communist Chinese may have: Do the American really have only 1 factory for manufacturing the Abrams tank, and is that factory’s capability really only 12 tanks per month?
Re Taiwan
I figure that the communist Chinese view Taiwan similar to the Russian’s particular notion that “it’s ours.”
And, I figure that the communist Chinese have 10’s of thousands of fellow travelers on the island, prepared to do Taiwan harm and otherwise surrender things . . . as the traitors aboard the Crimea did: handing over the keys to the Russians.
BTW, I also figure that expectation of treason in favor of Russian plans, is probably what was in store for Kiev etc., but the Russian invasion failed where the Russians greatly underestimated the free will of ordinary Ukrainians to hold on to their country.
BTW2, that is also a problem for the communist Chinese: Where they underestimate how motivated Taiwanese are, among whom there are plenty who do not want to become Hong Kong II.
I suspect that the communist Chinese do not have many concerns about the woke U.S. Navy of modernity. Our Navy has succeeded in severly damaging itself:
- 2 destroyers
- 2 submarines
- 1 aircraft carrier burned up *DOCKSIDE* in home port
- 1 aircraft landed in Chinese held territory and the aircrew received medals from George W. Bush
- 1 fast boat stumbling into the amused Iranian Rev. Guards
In addition to the ridiculously-expensive Zumwalt *ALUMINUM* missile launchers that are the product of think tank white papers that keep printer manufacturers in business.
And: woke is inversely related to warrior.
About knowledge of military affairs, I vaguely recall:
Henry Knox had a natural mechanical engineering instinct. In a bookstore where he worked, he read books about artillery. He was a natural fit within the American Revolutionary militia gathered around Boston.