“US Naval losses aren’t likely to be enormous. The USN just needs to stay a certain distance off the China coast. The US still has a great strategic recon advantage.”
A few in this thread have said similar things.
What you’re all missing is that China has focused on area denial for the surrounding region. The DF-21 missile is a repurposed (hypersonic) ICBM that’s considered a viable threat to US ships out to 1200 miles. It’s launched from mobile launchers, so not easy to take out either.
US carrier aircraft can’t strike from that distance without aerial refueling.
China has also developed a very long range air-to-air missile, carried by their stealthy J-20 fighters. It’s primarily designed to destroy our quite vulnerable tanker aircraft.
Our long-range bombers are likely to be our best asset. One B-1 can carry up to 24 LRASMs (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile). Those could do some serious damage to the Chinese surface fleet. Our subs are of limited utility in the shallow waters of the Taiwan Strait.
As to any ‘recon advantage’, China is actively working on ways to defeat our satellites. I wouldn’t count on many remaining viable for any length of time.
The approach should be to heavily arm Taiwan with mobile anti-ship and anti-air missiles, making it next to impossible for China to land assault forces. That said, Taiwan faces a large force of conventional ballistic missiles that China could try to use to force capitulation.
I hope this conflict doesn’t happen, it’ll be horrific if it does - not to mention it being a huge hit for the world economy. It could also very easily go nuclear, just as could happen with Ukraine.
Just off the East coast of Taiwan is deep water.
Submarines should have no problems hiding there. Its well within Tomahawk range of the Chinese coast.
There is deep water or allied coastal waters everywhere within range of the Chinese coast. There is nowhere for the Chinese fleet to hide. And thats just from submarines.
All potential invasion harbors are in range of Tomahawk, and then there is sub-launched Harpoon, which puts all Chinese warships or transports anywhere near Taiwan at risk.
As for ASATs, that is top secret stuff. If China can shoot down US satellites, the US can shoot down theirs, and with that goes most of the antiship ICBM threat vs carrier groups.
Anyway, the Chinese missile threats vs various US systems is speculative as all this is the stuff of technological trumps, measures/countermeasures. We have no idea what each sides toys can do to the other side, nor which weapons will be effective or ineffective. We are out of the loop.