I’m not clear what Ukraine is winning. The battle lines seem stalemated, both sides punching it out to no apparent advantage. Maybe a little advance for the Russians at Bakhmut. As for the tanks, we have Javelin tank killers, so I assume Russia has something similar.
The real risk is that Russia may attempt to attack the armor en route, whether being shipped by sea or by rail, that would likely involve attacks on Nato territory. This move could provoke a larger war.
“I’m not clear what Ukraine is winning.”
russia is a superpower. there are three : us, russia and China.
russia, as a superpower, should have taken Ukraine in a week or two. They didn’t even come close.
Sooo they are losing. The longer this goes, the weaker russia/putin look and are.
If putin was smart he would declare Ukraine de-nazified, bring his troops home and have a victory parade
>> As for the tanks, we have Javelin tank killers, so I assume Russia has something similar. <<
Nope. No they don’t. Well, they have anti-tank rockets, but our tanks defeat them by making them blow up a few feet above the turrets.
The Russians have a lot of atgms, but they dont really have top-attack versions. They may have announced some, but they dont seem to have used any so far, likely because they are not fully developed.
These vehicles, like nearly all other western aid, will travel from the Polish border on busy roads. Thats Ukraine’s lifeline. Russia has not been able to interdict that flow of military and civilan support. If they had been able to they would have won by now.
The Russians are stalemated due to a bunch of interlocking circumstances. They can’t use most of their Air Force effectively is a big one.
The question now is whether Ukraine has or will have the ability to break through on the Zaporozhia front and take Melitopol or Mariupol. That will cut the Russian front in half and leave the Russians in a logistics mess on the east bank of the Dneiper, and in Crimea. It will also achieve the bulk of Ukrainian war aims. This remains to be seen.
NATO would win if it was willing to engage in the kind of attacks that will make plain it is the entity actually fighting Russia. The attempt to keep that truth a secret makes victory much more difficult, as the Ukrainians by themselves aren’t enough. The trick is giving Ukraine just enough help (especially launder-able money) to stay in the fight, but not enough for the world to figure out definitively that this is a proxy war.
Also, the arms companies stand to make massive fortunes if the conflict draws out - and many Western politicians are eagerly anticipating their cut…