Posted on 01/10/2023 6:46:31 AM PST by Sam's Army
CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.
Nope, A war with China, Russia and Iran, all at the same time. The idiot war mongers are out to get us all killed!
Can we just conscribe them and send them to the glorious front of their choosing...
We promise to try and locate them after the war. Just like we did for are Vietnam troops in Laos. The US left them to die because we were not officially there. Reagan tried to get that going and he got shut down.
They beat each other with sticks on the Indian Border.
I guess that starts the escalation process between two nuclear powers at a notch above face slapping.
Actually took the time to read the report…very skeptical of any defense studies group that begins with…” The invasion always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities. Augmented by a powerful rocket force, the Chinese navy encircles Taiwan and interdicts any attempts to get ships and aircraft to the besieged island. Tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers cross the strait in a mix of military amphibious craft and civilian roll- on, roll-off ships, while air assault and airborne troops land behind the beachheads.”
Still using conventional thought processes that have permeated our military! This archaic thinking has resulted in countless military losses for the last 40+ years. China is in for the long haul and their first strikes will not be the use of military strike forces. They will use unconventional military and electronic methods and means to achieve their goals. The fight will be global to reduce any opponents means to counter their goals. Think overextension and reduction of global capabilities….to counter any action by the Chinese.
Unfortunately, our military planners don’t think in terms of “winning” and achieving the political goals with anything else but conventional means.
Those losses are predicated on the PLAN/PLAF/PLA weapons actually working, made in a country that specializes in knock offs, contracts that go to manufacturers with the lowest bid, using the cheapest components and materials, & able to pay the highest bribes.
Did they factor that in?
It doesn't get serious until bananas are involved...
It really does belong to China. Maybe they’ll work out a deal.
I would add Panama… but your point is well-made and correct.
conscribe - my hat’s off to a great, rare verb.
Unfortunately, you’re thinking war is the use of militaries…it’s not, nor has it ever been…war is politics and the use of all means…diplomatic, information, military and economic. China has successfully won numerous wars and conflicts.
The two skirmishes along the Amur River with Russia did not go well either.
Really, we won in Iraq and Afghanistan? Please define what it is to “win”?
We had our short term thinking asses handed to us by feudalistic tribes…willing to make more sacrifices than we were.
No, we lost both of these political fights!
All Bullshit. Station 5 destroyers in the straits of Malacca and interdict Chinese oil tankers.
In a month the cars and trucks stop moving in China.
In 3 months the power goes out in China
In 12 months you have 300 million Chinese dead from starvation
Honestly, I think China will eventually take over Taiwan economically. And..the Taiwanese will welcome them.
They will go red without a shot fired.
China “buys” their influence.
Appreciate your post. Any wargaming that does not take into account electronic and other types of warfare outside of the localized theater is remiss in my opinion.
All commerce from China stops
The American people do not have the stomach for a slog in Taiwan
Assume the following….1 year before China thinks they want to do anything:
-increase incoming drug distribution within our borders…including fentanyl and any others they have the capability to manufacture. Probably 10 fold increase!
-Foment border issues on our borders
-Economic war with us…increasing economic partisanship with Africa, Asia and Europe
-cyber strikes on all us systems
-increase propaganda against Taiwan and U.S.
-further increase agents within Taiwan and their military
Haven’t fired a shot yet….they are already furthering their progression in the above
Hell, Taiwan will probably got to have them come in
Remember the old Hillary TV campaign ad with the 2am ringing phone in the White House? That would be pretty accurate these days as whoever answers the phone and takes the report of the Chinese invasion has to then waken a befuddled Biden, convene the cabal that runs the country to decide what to do, have someone write Biden’s speech and hope Biden doesn’t screw it up or become incoherent during the speech
I was part of Desert Shield/Storm.
Our goal was to remove Iraqi forces from Kuwait.
We did.
Very good point and my thinking, too.
The Chinese released a virus on the globe that killed millions, but we dare not call it Chinese or Wuhan flu.
That would be raciss...
And that kind of thinking is why we lost and will continue to lose without firing a shot.
China will turn on the Russians if it can defeat the USN and get us out of the western Pacific.
Instead of fighting Cold WarII with the Russians we should be playing them off against the CCP the way we played the CCP off against the Soviets.
To hold Taiwan we must keep that war confined to an air/sea battle with very limited boots on the ground. It will require us hitting mainland China and therein lies the rub, will they hit the mainland USA? I say yes and they are crazy enough to go nuclear.
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