I suspect the penalties will gradually increase and the allotted number of times you can travel outside your “zone” will decrease.
Eventually, people will be told that some just can’t be “trusted” and cars will be banned altogether. If you want to travel outside your zone, you will submit a request to the proper authorities and a self-driving car will arrive to take you to the pre-programmed destination and return you home at the agreed upon stated time. No deviations from the route will be allowed.
Government Digital Coin - Digital Currency will restrict your movement to a certain distance from your place of residence - via your Debit card / Credit card - at least that’s the “conspiracy theory” which may turn out to be another fact.
Imagine if Herr Fauci had THAT tool at his disposal...