Agree with your analysis. Another element I would add is Russia military doctrine and its national psyche is able to withstand massive casualties. They associate war with massive loss of soldiers and the ‘wave’ dynamic, albeit deeply flawed, has been part of their military ethos for a long time. To the contrary, the West has a ‘glass jaw’ in that it cannot withstand losses. Post WW2, our appetite for casualties is very low and Vietnam really put the lid on that as far as the USA is concerned.
I do think Russia would be willing, by the point of the gun, to commit millions of its citizens to a meat grinder conventional war with NATO. Unless we are witnessing some sort of Russian ‘rope a dope’ (which I do not believe) it must also be said that it appears Russia’s ability to train and outfit a million(s) of soldiers is extremely limited. It’s also unknown if the Russian psyche is the same or has changed in regard to casualties, but we cannot gamble that it has changed. I do not think a direct-action war betwixt Russia and NATO would stay conventional for long at all, days or weeks at best.
Unknowns are what North Korea, Iran, Israel, India, China, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan would do in such an event. Would they use the opportunity settle some of their own beefs, would they use the opportunity to attempt to directly bring down the American hegemony? Not to mention the unstable environment here at home.. It’s all unknown, even by the pencil necks in the DoD who war-game this all day.
The risks far outweigh the reward. Kind of like not getting into a fight with a road rager, especially when you’re armed!
The only to win this one is not to play.
I realize some of my statements may be contradictory, just having a free flow of thought there.
There are only two countries in the world that could fight a more conventional war and maybe win it, and then control the territory they gain.
Red China and India.
Your opinion of the glass jaw is spot on. Am waiting for bodies of Americans to start showing up and see what the reaction will be within this nation to that.
Ronald Reagan said it best...In a nuclear war, there are no winners.
Outside of that. I expect that Russia will start using its fuel air munitions more now. They have been using the smaller ones, but I expect them to start using the larger ones. Those suck the guts out of the victims, blow blood vessels in the head, rupture lungs EVEN if the victims are under cover.
Those people are a mean bunch. Both sides.
“Another element I would add is Russia military doctrine and its national psyche is able to withstand massive casualties. They associate war with massive loss of soldiers and the ‘wave’ dynamic,“
Even worse, since they got the A and H bomb, and ICBM it has been an article of near religious faith over there that there will never again be an enemy that visits attacks on Russian homelands without getting their own homes devastated.
They have felt safe that no more Napoleon, no Kaiser, no Hitler, will ever be able to visit that devastation on them again without 30 minutes later getting vaporized.
Times are far more dangerous that we would probably believe. And nobody on the NATO/DC/EU side shows the slightest concern about how this might escalate.