“ the number look bad at Amazon, what must they be at other retailers?”
Proportional increase at brick and mortar after Covid hysteria cuts in to Amazon share.
My comment does not mean anything you just wrote,na very good post, is necessarily untrue.
But even in a great economy, people not being scared of Covid anymore would cause Amazon to take a hit in market share.
Btw, how many shares of Amazon do you have?
I do not own any Amazon stock nor do I have any current plans to invest in Amazon. I liquidated all of my investments in retail companies two years ago.
I worked in retail for 35 years. I continue to talk to retailers and suppliers. My contacts, tell me business is currently tough online and in bricks and mortar. This perception is confirmed by the recent earnings of retailers and the current street expectations for Q3 and Q4 results.
September 29 Bed Bath and Beyond reported 29% decline in sales and a loss. A number of other retailers are reporting this month. The street expectation is Wal-Mart earnings tomorrow will be down 9%. Kohls reports November 17 and earnings are expected to be down 60%. Yahoo Finance expects Target sales to be up 2.5% and earnings down 31.6% when it reports Nov 16. Zachs is projecting Macy’s Q3 revenue to be down 4.9% and EPS to be down 84% when it reports Nov 17.
On September 7, Newell Brands, a large manufacturer of consumer and commercial hardwoods, cut its outlook for the remainder of 2022 due to lower retail orders. Hanesbrands, the apparel giant, reported a 6.6% drop in sales and 55% drop in earnings for Q3 last week. It attributed the decline and its forward negative guidance on declining consumer sales and tight inventory management by US retailers. Many other US retailers, and major suppliers to retail, are reporting negative sales and earnings for Q3 and calling down forward guideance. This is true of both online and bricks and mortar retail. Covid or no Covid, consumers have pulled back on spending in all distribution channels and most product categories. High single digit inflation and rising interest rates are putting the squeeze on discretionary spending.
As I indicated, Bezos sees the internal numbers. He knows people throughout the retail world, as well as key executives at major banks, who have insight into the performance of companies in the retail sector. He also likely subscribes to a number of data services that track brick and mortar and online sales. If he is issuing a warning about a slowing economy, he isn’t basing his concern on Amazon alone.