“So that poll tells us literally nothing about the impact of anything that happened after November 2, nearly a week before the election.”
Polls are useless, I’ve never given them much credence.
The ‘polls’ I like are past historical results.
Who was the Republican Primary winner in 2016 & 2020?
There was no significant Republican primary challenger to Trump in 2020.
But if you like historical results, let's look at Ron DeSantis.
Elected to the House in 2012, re-elected in 2014, and 2016.
Elected governor in 2018 and re-elected in one of the greatest landslides ever in 2022.
Trump hasn't won anything since he beat Hillary in 2016 and that was a long, long time ago. Since then, three failed elections cycles under his belt where he was front and center.
I'm going with a guy who can win, and then win again.