Second - if McCarthy is short because of GOP votes for anyone else, it is 100% certain that, if a majority (>218) is required to choose the Speaker, the Dem votes will be there for McCarthy, who will agree to keep the January 6 "committee" in place in exchange.
If Republicans who don't want McCarthy do not attend the session, the choice will be a majority of those attending, meaning Pelosi will be re-elected.
First of all, a GOP majority is far from certain. At least 50% chance Pelosi will be Speaker again.“
I think you are right. They are afraid of a rebellion so they are going to drop the shoe on the House slowly to keep things from blowing up. Then rats cannot lose either house or the covers could get pulled back.