“I was thinking to myself tonight that those Trafalgar polls were a big factor in this ‘red wave’ expectation. They weren’t very good.”
They weren’t good in 2020 either, but ANYONE whose predictions turned out to be wrong in 2020 could shriek FRAUD!!!!! and pretend there were no other reasons for losses in certain areas.
They’re going to have to pretend a little harder now, or just concede that a pollster who consistently tells us only what we want to hear isn’t necessarily going to be the most accurate. Plus there’s the habit of some people of arbitrarily adding some number to GOP candidates in polls — just because — and concluding that “So and so Republican is losing by only 5 points in this poll and THAT MEANS HE’S REALLY AHEAD!!!!!!”
Yeah... there was a lot of ‘ “no one expected these numbers to be so close” thinking about the polls... close doesn’t work in politics.