Let’s not talk about your “common sense” shall we?
It’s nothing more than code language for ‘off the top of my head’......
I value the top of my head a very great deal, in spite of it being bald. Sigh. Sic transit gloria mundi. My girlfriends alternated between saying I looked like Robin Williams, and Antonio Banderas. These days that is no longer plausible.
In any case, my judgment is still superb. Note that I predicted an LNG glut, and now it begins. Watch that space.