“Also, a de facto annexation of Belarus.”
Post hoc. Belarus was “de facto” annexed to Russia when Putin stepped in to save Lukashenko’s political bacon a couple years ago. Lukashenko may be in denial, though, and has not accepted it.
Lukashenko wants annexation by Russia, in return for far greater influence at the top table. For now, Russian troops in Belarus are probably the only thing protecting him from being given the Ceaucescu treatment.
What might compel a rethink on his part is the increasingly frosty attitude of the other Republics toward Moscow; one recently pointed out that they’re pretty much treated as irrelevant by the central command.
One of those voices is from someone who, at the fall of the Soviet Union, took the same line as Lukashenko and feels like he’s been hung out to dry ever since.
I would consider a smart bet on Lukashenko waiting for the factions in Moscow to start attacking each other, before siding with the other Republics in “restoring order” - a new CIS with Russia far less in control of everything could emerge.