Posted on 10/07/2022 3:32:34 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
As Hurricane Ian bore down on Florida, normally reliable computer forecast models couldn’t agree on where the killer storm would land. But government meteorologists are now figuring out what went wrong — and right.
Much of the forecasting variation seems to be rooted in cool Canadian air that had weakened a batch of sunny weather over the East Coast. That weakening would allow Ian to turn eastward to Southwest Florida instead of north and west to the Panhandle hundreds of miles away.
The major American computer forecast model -- one of several used by forecasters -- missed that and the error was “critical,” a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration postmortem of computer forecast models determined Thursday.
“It’s pretty clear that error is very consequential,” said former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, now a private meteorologist who wasn’t part of NOAA’s postmortem.
Still, meteorologists didn’t miss overall with their official Hurricane Ian forecast. Ian’s eventual southwestern Florida landfall was always within the “cone of uncertainty” of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track, although at times it was on the farthest edge.
But it wasn’t that simple. Computer forecast models, which weeks earlier had agreed on where Hurricane Fiona was going, were hundreds of miles apart as Ian chugged through the Caribbean.
The normally reliable American computer model, which had performed better than any other model in 2021 and was doing well earlier in the year, kept forecasting a Florida Panhandle landfall while the European model -- long a favorite of many meteorologists — and the British simulation were pointing to Tampa or farther south.
(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.com ...
Any bets on whether there was a new affirmative action hire in the modeling group?
But Global Warming models don’t suffer from such problems. Got it!
But they can predict Climate Change.
Bookmark
Models are always an abstraction of reality. Treat them for what they are.
“Overall, the European computer model performed best, the British one had the closest eventual Florida landfall but was too slow in timing and the American model had the highest errors when it came to track, NOAA’s Alicia Bentley said during the agency’s postmortem.”
Because there is no cone of uncertainty for those models. /s
The forecast are always right... because they always update the forecast.
Too many hurricanes = Climate Change
Not enough hurricanes = Climate Change
Climate Change never wrong.
If you looked at the satellite picture of cloud patterns you would have seen the cold front over northern Florida. It was obvious that Ian was going to turn N.E. bfore Tampa while they were forecasting a landfall at Tampa Bay.
In other words the science failed us.
Assorted Prostitutes explains nothing, they just repeat the Soros line. They are merely a deep state mouthpiece.
As it is with all computer modeling...
12 different models, none of them are correct, but, somehow,
people think that if you average 12 “wrong” answers,
you will get the “right” answer.
A computer model is only as good as the validity of the information given to the programming team by the “experts” in their field.
GIGO?
And the assumptions built into the model!
But they they use the same model that predicts if the atmospheric concentratiom of CO2 ever climbs from 0.04% to 0.05% both ice caps will instantly sublime to steam and the oceans will vaporize and the ground will become a new sea of molten slag causing the polar bears, snail darters, whales and spotted owls to perish
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