Posted on 10/07/2022 3:32:34 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
That’s our local forcasters ... they are 100% spot on when they give their final forecast after the weather event.
I started tracking the depression just after it formed much further south than other storms this season. Most of the earlier depressions made a 60/70 degree turn to the northwest just after they became a storm hard right and went almost due north for about 3 days after they became a Tropical Storm or hurricane then turned more to the east. You’re right most forecasts were all over the map. I transposed the other tracks and put it straight over N. Ft. Myers. I feel almost sorry for projecting the track.
Oh please, we all take those forecasts with a VERY large grain of salt !
In other words the science of meteorology works. But it is easier to rely on someone's computer models than to look at the date on the ground and understand why stuff is happening.
Actually, if you look at post #12, the science is pretty good [the understanding of the physics that drives meteorological phenomenon]. But that science apparently is not in the computer models.
Considering the number of variables in the atmosphere, it’s surprising they get as much right as they do.
With a dynamic system that is always in flux, trying to pin point something exact is like trying to hit a moving target from the deck of a boat at sea.
Sometimes weather patterns can be very stable and offer a fairly high degree pf certainty. Other times not so much and anything can happen.
They learn from this and try to tweak the models for better success the next time. And NO meteorologist takes any pleasure in the widespread death and destruction that severe weather events can mete out. Their whole goal is to avoid that by warning people in time in spite of the harassment they take when they are off.
That map actually showed its track fairly accurately.
Indeed, can’t ever be wrong if you always update.
It should have been exact! After all they predict global warming 100 years from now to be 1/2 of 1 degree Fahrenheit.
For all we know about the atmosphere there is a lot we do not know. Not sure what this article is for other than tell us something that is already known.
I was expecting that it might move even farther east, but they were talking about it going up toward Tampa. If I lived on one of those islands like Sanibel, I think I would have evacuated.
These are the “man-made climate change” experts.
These are the “man-made climate change” experts.
“But trust us! Our computer model showing 1.5 degrees warming in 100 years is very accurate and trustworthy.”
“Models are always an abstraction of reality. Treat them for what they are.”
They are HUGE money-making machines. Trillions of dollars are flowing from the global warming models.
For sure considering its elevation above sea level and the fact that the right side of the storm is always the worst.
People , I think, vastly underestimate the power of water like is found in a storm surge. Add it to something like high tide, and it’s all the worst, and there was uncertainty about that all along.
Staying on an island when a hurricane is in the vicinity and heading in your general direction is NEVER a good choice.
Hurricane prediction models are not the same as alleged “global warming “ models.
Weather is like a woman. Unpredictable.
*ducks*
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