Posted on 10/05/2022 4:53:38 AM PDT by Timber Rattler
Here’s a list of articles written by Mr Schryver. They are quite revealing of his worldview. I’ll let those who wish to look decide how his opinions and predictions over the past few months have “aged”.
https://imetatronink.substack.com/archive?sort=new
Putin and those around him conceived of the Russo-Ukrainian War in existential terms from the very beginning. It is unlikely, however, that most Russians understood this. Instead, they likely viewed the war the same way Americans viewed the war in Iraq and Ukraine - as a justified military enterprise that was nevertheless merely a technocratic task for the professional military; hardly a matter of life and death for the nation. I highly doubt that any American ever believed that the fate of the nation hinged on the war in Afghanistan (Americans have not fought an existential war since 1865), and judging by the recruitment crisis plaguing the American military, it does not seem like anyone perceives a genuine foreign existential threat.
What has happened in the months since February 24 is rather remarkable. The existential war for the Russian nation has been incarnated and made real for Russian citizens. Sanctions and anti-Russian propaganda - demonizing the entire nation as “orcs” - has rallied even initially skeptical Russians behind the war, and Putin’s approval rating has soared. A core western assumption, that Russians would turn on the government, has reversed. Videos showing the torture of Russian POWs by frothing Ukrainians, of Ukrainian soldiers calling Russian mothers to mockingly tell them their sons are dead, of Russian children killed by shelling in Donetsk, have served to validate Putin’s implicit claim that Ukraine is a demon possessed state that must be exorcised with high explosives. Amidst all of this - helpfully, from the perspective of Alexander Dugin and his neophytes - American pseudo-intellectual “Blue Checks” have publicly drooled over the prospect of “decolonizing and demilitarizing” Russia, which plainly entails the dismemberment of the Russian state and the partitioning of its territory. The government of Ukraine (in now deleted tweets) publicly claimed that Russians are prone to barbarism because they are a mongrel race with Asiatic blood mixing.
Simultaneously, Putin has moved towards - and ultimately achieved - his project of formal annexation of Ukraine’s old eastern rim. This has also legally transformed the war into an existential struggle. Further Ukrainian advances in the east are now, in the eyes of the Russian state, an assault on sovereign Russian territory and an attempt to destroy the integrity of the Russian state. Recent polling shows that a supermajority of Russians support defending these new territories at any cost.
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A political consensus for higher mobilization and greater intensity has been achieved. Now all that remains is the implementation of this consensus in the material world of fist and boot, bullet and shell, blood and iron.
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Putin, very simply, could not have conducted a large scale mobilization at the onset of the war. He possessed neither a coercive mechanism nor the manifest threat to generate mass political support. Few Russians would have believed that there was some existential threat lurking in the shadow - they needed to be shown, and the west has not disappointed. Likewise, few Russians would likely have supported the obliteration of Ukrainian infrastructure and urban utilities in the opening days of the war. But now, the only vocal criticism of Putin within Russia is on the side of further escalation. The problem with Putin, from the Russian perspective, is that he has not gone far enough. In other words - mass politics have already moved ahead of the government, making mobilization and escalation politically trivial. Above all, we must remember that Clausewitz’s maxim remains true. The military situation is merely a subset of the political situation, and military mobilization is also political mobilization - a manifestation of society’s political participation in the state.
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The other is the interpretation that I have advocated, that Russia is massing for a winter escalation and offensive, and is currently engaged in a calculated trade wherein they give up space in exchange for time and Ukrainian casualties. Russia continues to retreat where positions are either operationally compromised or faced with overwhelming Ukrainian numbers, but they are very careful to extract forces out of operational danger. In Lyman, where Ukraine threatened to encircle the garrison, Russia committed mobile reserves to unblock the village and secure the withdrawal of the garrison. Ukraine’s “encirclement” evaporated, and the Ukrainian interior ministry was bizarrely compelled to tweet (and then delete) video of destroyed civilian vehicles as “proof” that the Russian forces had been annihilated.
Russia will likely continue to pull back over the coming weeks, withdrawing units intact under their artillery and air umbrella, grinding down Ukrainian heavy equipment stocks and wearing away their manpower. Meanwhile, new equipment continues to congregate in Belgorod, Zaporizhia, and Crimea. My expectation remains the same: episodic Russian withdrawal until the front stabilizes roughly at the end of October, followed by an operational pause until the ground freezes, followed by escalation and a winter offensive by Russia once they have finished amassing sufficient units.
It was a very contentious time here during the Bush II years amnesty push also.
I'ma student of war, and in my view, all wars are wars of morale.
Why do you have a new account.
“No dumb bastard ever won a war by going out and dying for his country. He won it by making some other dumb bastard die for his country.” ― George S. Patton Jr.
Actually despite your incessant personal attacks I only write what I observe
Like today where I gleaned enough to ascertain that indeed Russia has retreated in parts of kherson
I found that verified on alternative to globalist media that you now trust
And when I find it I say so
And have throughout the special military operation
On multiple occasions
Whereas you simply repost western media press releases which are usually lies or embellishments written by people not even in the war theatre
And you compound that by insulting personally anyone who doesn’t swallow your screed whole
And you mislead btw like your link yesterday
I’ll be happy to link anyone I glean from and be honest about who they are and what I suspect of their prejudice or lack of
Something you and most of your ilk here do not
Truth is secondary to your narrative you hold
I dont have a narrative other than i detest the same folks who brought us Russia gate and the Big Lie are now providing you with your Ukraine info
Which tells me you fail to realize the issues or who is your real enemy
I’m under no such confusion
But like I said I will give an honest assessment woke new world order or not
And yes to reiterate Russia has lost previously gained Donbass territory in at least two sectors im aware of
So the globalists got that part right
One can argue why and the implications forever
Actually despite your incessant personal attacks I only write what I observe
Like today where I gleaned enough to ascertain that indeed Russia has retreated in parts of kherson
I found that verified on alternative to globalist media that you now trust
And when I find it I say so
And have throughout the special military operation
On multiple occasions
Whereas you simply repost western media press releases which are usually lies or embellishments written by people not even in the war theatre
And you compound that by insulting personally anyone who doesn’t swallow your screed whole
And you mislead btw like your link yesterday
I’ll be happy to link anyone I glean from and be honest about who they are and what I suspect of their prejudice or lack of
Something you and most of your ilk here do not
Truth is secondary to your narrative you hold
I dont have a narrative other than i detest the same folks who brought us Russia gate and the Big Lie are now providing you with your Ukraine info
Which tells me you fail to realize the issues or who is your real enemy
I’m under no such confusion
But like I said I will give an honest assessment woke new world order or not
And yes to reiterate Russia has lost previously gained Donbass territory in at least two sectors im aware of
So the globalists got that part right
One can argue why and the implications forever
And long before GWB, regime change in Iraq etc. Some neocons may have quoted Bloom, but I don’t understand the references to Bloom in the article. It’s difficult for a dead person to be a leader.
It’s not easy building a battalion. It’s not easy building a regiment. It’s not easy building a division and most difficult is building a corp.
.
Time, personnel, training, money, organization, logistics, intergration etc is not a quick or simple task.
5.56mm
wow, you are cheering what you think are "American losses"
Why do you always cheer when America loses? Are you a democrat?
As a matter of fact I did, I was personally saddened when Hilary was under sniper fire lol but I guess two wrongs make a right
Reminding the misguided Biden war cheerleaders, paraphrasing:, “all of the major U.S. wars in the 20th century—World War I, II, Korea and Vietnam—were entered by Democratic administrations. Harry Truman, a Democrat, is still the only world leader to use a nuclear bomb on a population”
Today, the mistaken emotional Ukie war cheerleaders ( both Republicans and Democrat) are backing a senile, corrupted old man and are once again proving out history. Your bad Vlad emotions sucked you into yet another war, history repeats.
Both the corrupted little beggar and Vlad are evil, support neither.
Zelensky is a comedian.
I support the right of the Ukrainian people to not be invaded and murdered by Putin. You should too
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