Posted on 10/02/2022 4:55:54 PM PDT by dennisw
If you are wondering what the damage of such a limited nuclear war would look like, the Chernobyl nuclear accident from 1986 provides a pretty good example, since that disaster site lies between Kiev and Russia and Belarus. Above you’ll find a map showing the Cesium 137 fallout from Chernobyl. If you want to know what bombing Kiev would do, just move the Chernobyl spot down and a little to the right and see where the blotches fall.
But tactical nukes aren’t a nuclear accident, you say, the map would be different. Yes, it would be BIGGER. Chernobyl melted DOWN while bomb and missile and artillery fallout bounce UP into the atmosphere and spread much farther.
Most of the fallout of a Kiev attack, in fact, would land in Russia. The cities of Bryansk (427,000 population), Kaluuga (338,000), Kursk (409,000), Orel (324,000), and Tula (468,000) would all be hit, not by weapon strikes, but by fallout. That’s just under two million people exposed in those five cities, not counting folks in the countryside between.
Two million is approximately the population of Kiev, or was before a lot of those people fled west.
We can estimate civilian deaths from radiation, from heat, from atmospheric over-pressure, but I’ll just jump here to the bottom line that about one million Russians would die from such a nuclear attack, both directly and through greatly increased cancer deaths in later years.
So a nuclear attack on Kiev would kill more Russians than Ukrainians.
Moving the attack to, say, Odessa would kill more Ukrainians, but it would completely destroy the Ukrainian agricultural economy for a century and still kill tens of thousands of Russians.
Now consider the supposed military justification for such an attack. Ukraine clams to have killed 15,000 Russian soldiers while Russia says its losses are more like 1500. I don’t care which number is correct because Putin killing one million of his own people to avenge 1500 or 15,000 deaths makes no sense.
He’s just whining.
The Russians are not evacuating those five cities, so Putin is either willing to lose a million Russian citizens or he has no real intention of launching nukes.
I’m guessing it’s a bluff.
And what if it isn’t a bluff? What if Putin actually goes ahead and pushes that button saying — as bullies are wont to do — “Look what you made me do.”
IF Putin pushes that button, it will set in motion a series of very quick events as half a dozen nations take action not against Russia, but against Putin personally. Navy SEALS and Chinese commandos will fall from the sky, but Putin will already be dead, killed by his own people, whether any nukes are actually launched or not.
EXCERPT ^^^^^^^^^^^
Robert X. Cringely-—— Remember this guy. I was a PBS series he did circa 2002 (actually 1996) about Microsoft and the early computer companies
wiki-—
Cringely in two documentaries based on his writings: Triumph of the Nerds: The Rise of Accidental Empires (1996) and Nerds 2.0.1: A Brief History of the Internet (1998)
Yeah, I don’t see it happening either, but I have a real suspicion that Putin’s going to obliterate Kiev or something and then stand back and see what the west does.
What Cringely wrote about the fallout from Putin using nukes on the Ukraine would fall on Russia is correct. The prevailing winds are from the west. If Putin would use nukes, then he would end up killing thousands of his own people.
The question is: Is he desperate or mad enough to do it?
I may be completely wrong but I was under the impression that Russia had a supply of tactical nukes; suitcase bombs that I would imagine could be delivered by drones.
Would these lead to widespread radiation contamination or be more limited? These would be the kind of nukes they might imagine would not lead to Armageddon.
Hope someone can enlighten me here.
Putin is looking for a way out and he can save face and his life in the aftermath of this folly. And the West isn’t giving it to him. The only way nukes work for him is if the media can convince people that it came from Ukraine.
An EMP attack over the battlefield is possible. A high altitude nuke blast. Would we count this as a nuclear attack, or not?
I think not. We would not respond with a conventional nuclear missile, but we might do a retaliatory EMP blast ourselves over Russia.
There have been many Robert C Cringelys. They have always been IT rumor guys, hardly expert.
Putin’s on death’s door, so what the hell does he care? But the Russians might want to live somewhat longer.
Whatever happened to good old Neutron Bombs?
There was a description of a US tactical nuke that took five men to carry it via HALO drop.
Then it had to be assembled on the ground.
That was during the Vietnam War. It would have disrupted the Ho Chi Minh trail if used.
I’m not sure what the Russians have.
P
Let’s say Putin orders his officers to nuke a target (either at the West or Ukraine or both), I think they are not going to carry it out. They might turn on Putin instead.
The smaller the nuclear weapon the tighter the tolerances have to be and the more often the weapons have to be overhauled. There minimum sizes for critical mass and hence yields of bombs. The Russians have shown the world that they aren’t very good at following through with maintenance schedules for their conventional weapon systems and logistics. I can’t imagine their nuclear weapons are any better maintained, especially as they have so many of them. The smaller weapons are more likely to be duds or dirty bombs.
There were about 100 atmospheric tests in Nevada, not counting underground tests that vented or “Plowshare” events. Radioactive elements from those tests covered most of the US east of the site to varying degrees. Yes, there were problems, but not the apocalypse envisioned here.
As early as the 1950s army Special Forces had backpack nukes.
Putin isn’t going to use nukes because doing so would make Russia politically radioactive. Nobody will buy their energy and Russians will be eating grass.
Yes, prevailing winds are from the West. But Putin could presumably wait until favorable winds happen.
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