Posted on 09/26/2022 9:47:13 PM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
Ukraine’s recent successes have left some opponents of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war emboldened to speak out against the Kremlin.
One of Russia's most celebrated pop stars, Alla Pugachova has asked to be declared a foreign agent, in solidarity with her exiled husband Maxim Galkin. He was designated a foreign agent less than a week ago.
In an online post, she said Putin's war in Ukraine was "killing soldiers for illusory aims", and turning Russia into a "global pariah".
Is there a shift in Russian public opinion, given Moscow's recent military set-backs in its war on Ukraine?
So what? I’ve been to Zaporizhzhia many times. Donbas and Crimea are nothing like Zaporizhzhia these days.
Zaporizhzhia embraces all aspects of its regional identity. Russian Ukrainians and Galicians get along very well. The 2014-19 conflict didn’t really touch Zaporizhzhia.
That’s why so many people fleeing the Donbas, and Mariupol, went to Zaporizhzhia... To be defended by Ukrainians.
I have been to Zaporozhiye in the 1980s. It was no different than Donbas.
You misspelled RussoPedos… i.e., those worshipping their little boy’s tummy-licking KGB idol and listening in thrall to the words of convicted pedo Scott Ritter.
Thus, the referendums. And, once Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia become part of the Russian Federation, the gloves come off if those areas are attacked. That means the full force of the Russian military will come down on Ukraine and what's left of the Ukrainian army will squashed like cockroaches.
Remember three weeks ago when Putin and the Russian military were on the ropes and the Ukrainian army was steamrolling through Kharkov? That was then and Urkaine’s promised victory failed to materialize. With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that Russia abandoned the strategically meaningless territory in the Kharkov Oblast of Ukraine and re-deployed forces to the Donbas, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson. Why? To be in position for the referendum–i.e., to defend the Ukraine oblasts that would be given the chance to vote whether or not to reunite with mother Russia. Putin’s subsequent announcement of the referenda, which began last Friday, was not a Hail Mary pass nor an act of desperation. The planning for this had been in the works for at least a month, maybe longer.
While Ukraine continued to throw its troops against the Russian lines and launched artillery strikes on civilian targets, it paid a terrible price in terms of human casualties and destroyed tanks and combat vehicles, and failed completely to disrupt the vote. There have been international observers monitoring the vote throughout the four oblasts. I wish at least one reporter would ask these observers when they were first contacted and asked to come to the Russian controlled territory and do the monitoring. That detail would provide some insight into the extent of the pre-planning for the referenda.
It appears that the vote to reunite with Russia will be overwhelming in favor of becoming Russian republics. Once the results are certified the Russian Duma will act to accept the decision and Putin will put the cherry on the sundae and make it official. At that point–this Friday–the special military operation in Ukraine will end and Russia will be in position to defend its new territory.
I expect Putin to speak commemorating the event and will put Ukraine, NATO and the United States on notice that any further attacks on Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson will be an attack on Russia. Ukraine and the west will be on notice. The ball will be in their court.
This will create an opportunity for what is left of Ukraine to seek peace. I doubt that Ukraine and the west will accept this chance. The attacks on the new Russian population will continue and Russia will act. In contrast to the restraint demonstrated during the course of the last six plus months, Russia is likely to respond with more aggressive tactics that may include turning off the power in Ukraine and attacking command centers, including Zelensky’s headquarters in Kiev. This will lead to a significant escalation in the combat, but Ukraine and NATO will have a limited capacity to respond. Why?
The west no longer has the industrial base to match Russia’s production of war material. This weakness is compounded by the double whammy of inflation and economic collapse that is savaging Europe and starting to hurt the United States. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank, recently published an important essay detailing this decline:
The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own. The mass scale combat has pitted 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers, together with 450,000 recently mobilised citizen soldiers against about 200,000 Russian and separatist troops. The effort to arm, feed and supply these armies is a monumental task. Ammunition resupply is particularly onerous. For Ukraine, compounding this task are Russian deep fires capabilities, which target Ukrainian military industry and transportation networks throughout the depth of the country. The Russian army has also suffered from Ukrainian cross-border attacks and acts of sabotage, but at a smaller scale. The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.
This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
This is the work of Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin, a US citizen. He spells out in detail the challenge the United States and its NATO allies face if they dare to engage Russia in a tit-for-tat battle:
Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.
The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
Russia, by contrast, enjoys the luxury of defense plants that are operating 24-7 and producing ammunition, vehicles, tanks, drones, missiles and rockets. The west still labors under the delusion that Russia’s economy is barely tottering along. Russia has the minerals, material and qualified personnel required to produce what the Russian military needs to sustain operations; especially intense combat operations.
I do not know if this was the Russian plan from the outset–i.e., conduct operations that would create a de facto disarmament of the United States and Europe–or if this is pure serendipity. Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.
The coming weeks will expose fractures in the NATO alliance. Britain, for example, woke up this morning to learn that the once mighty pound Sterling, which once had twice the value of the US dollar, is now worth less than the dollar. That means that the Brits will be paying more for products they import from the United States. Although the United States only accounts for 12% of the UK imports, the price increase will further inflame the inflationary spiral in the UK. Newly minted British Prime Minister Liz Truss already is facing push back from the Tories about her proposed economic plan. The death of Queen Elizabeth put the political problems on a back burner for a couple of weeks. That honeymoon is over and the pressure of domestic politics in the UK will make continued support for Ukraine less certain.
The collapsing economies in France, Germany and Italy also will compel those countries to spend more time trying to quiet growing domestic unrest. When you factor in the energy crisis and Ukrainian military setbacks as winter sets in, the foundation of NATO unity vis-a-vis Ukraine, is likely to crack.
Hahahaha! So you’re a communist survivor then, the kind of misty eyed old dude that cried into his borscht when the Berlin Wall fell.
I was in England in the 80s. It was conservative, had no Internet, had limited cable TV, and everyone seemed terrified that AIDS would kill them if Russian nukes didn’t. I had Yorkshire coal miners in the family. My dad was a union official in an industry that no longer exists.
The campest, gayest comedian cross dresser on British television was a favourite of Maggie Thatcher, and he got to say “let’s bomb russia” at the Tory conference.
I got a taste of Czechoslovakia before the amicable divorce. Both countries have changed a lot since.
The past is another country, tovarisch.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1574754627307937794?t=d8XHeA0rv2nL4GeGeh0LRg&s=19
Rusdian call-up guy says he’s not even getting a day of induction training. Straight off to Kherson.
I bet he’s not alone. Still, if he can hit the ground running he might be fine.
#7. (Psst! - Ukraine has been winning more than losing since the second week of April. Don’t tell anyone, OK?)
“Lies and propaganda only lead to more disastrous making.”
Disregard if you choose. But, this is an opportunity to hear another aspect of what Putin is doing to his people:
1- Russian POWs family claims they had no idea their son was in Ukraine (English Translation)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKJ8iZPFIEg
2- Dagestan (russia) - Gunshots at a Protest against Mobilization (Multiple Videos)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Gy9q_DGl8I
3- The Russian soldiers knew that this was the end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfeblRmcMVM
4- Moscow Live | Protest Against Putin LIVE | Protest In Russia After Putin’s Declaration | Ukraine War
“Psst! - Ukraine has been winning more than losing since the second week of April. Don’t tell anyone, OK?”
VIDEO 9-27-2022 1 HR AGO
Putin’s Fear Has Come True! The Ukrainian Army is Advancing to the Russian Border!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDh9Ry0EDLA
The super modern Su-57 and T-14 Armata tank were introduced in 2010 and 2014 respectively. So far there are only prototypes and pre-production models, no series production at all. The Moskva had engines thousand of hours past their service lives,none of the air defenses missiles worked, and the only one point defense turret was kept working by cannibalizing parts from the other five. Russia's only tank manufacturing plant in Uralvagonzavod shut down at the end of March due to lack of parts. Parts they had to get from Germany. Russia losses are so high they are bringing T-64s out of storage. Their production ended in 1987. They have been in storage for 35 years.
After the Kharkiv counter attack, Russian state TV complained how the The nations allied with Ukraine have 10 times Russia's defense spending. That was after Russia boosted defense spending for the war.
To say the Russian war production base is superior to the collective ability of the west is delusional.
Russia can not go into full war production like it wants. Building up that ability will require Russian only sourced production and that will take years if Russia starts now. The west maintains its military equipment property and retains working production facilities far better than Russia can. Western nations do not have to escalate war production and have the better means if required.
Aren't you glad President Putin had been going easy on then Ukrainians? Now that the four disputed Russian majority territories voted to be part of Russia, look out! There is a reason President Putin has called up his ready reserves. I just hope the rest of us survive when NATO countries are drawn into this mess along with US.
I like this picture the most. There are several to choose from.
A traffic jam near Russia's border with Georgia on Sept. 25, 2022.
Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies.
Putin ordered mobilization on the 21st. It has been like this at the borders and flights out of Russia since then.
This is what the Russian call up is like:https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1574476679539527680. When soldiers need their own sleeping bags and to ask their families to get first aid kits, then soldiers need to get their wills in order and practice using body bags. Those that live are going to use a lot of body bags.
Ukraine's response to the call up? https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1573915201866539008:
"We're finished with the Russian professional army, it's time to do away with the amateur army" - Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The post in #6 show high support for the war in Russia. What the last week show is the reality of how conditional that support really is. Conditions that are not easy to poll in dictatorial countries because asking and answering the right questions honestly is unwise.
The Russian people say they support the war, say all the right things and pay their taxes, as long as the government and army fight and leave them out of it. For seven months, they have been told from the state controlled news, all is well, they are winning, there will be no mobilization. While at the same time, knowing they will go to jail if they call the invasion a invasion and not a special military operation.
There is the old Russian joke, "as long as they pretend to pay us we pretend to work". Under Putin, its been "as long as the government pretend to lead us, we pretend to trust them". Since the mobilization all the masks are coming off in Russian society.
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