Russia's Gas Exports To Europe Drop By 82% In A Year

OilPrice.com ^ | Sep 23, 2022 | Charles Kennedy

[Paul R.]

Unfortunately for Pooty, your general already has been assassinated by the (gas) detail.

Unless you can show us actual data otherwise, there is just no existing infrastructure / transport to get much over half the gas Russia was exporting to Europe, to China and India. This “can” be addressed, but it will take about a decade. The West with far greater resources (money, tech, expertise, experience, etc.) and shorter routes to cover will beat Russia to it (getting infrastructure built). And even if / once Russia catches up, you end up with global oversupply capacity, which is a very bad scenario for Russia.

This summer, prices were high enough for Pooty to maintain high revenues. But as alternate supplies come online, the global shortage eases and prices come down (assisted ironically by those very shipments you mention.) If you don’t think the real message from Xi and Modi to Pooty a couple days ago was “We want better discount!”, you are exceedingly naïve.

Europe of course has a nasty price problem at present, abetted by their own green policies and energy sanctions, which I do not agree with. Trump is right: Vigorously opening up supply would have choked Russia and benefitted the West (esp. the US) immensely. Putting the costs of the sanctions into that effort would have had a huge return.

So, where are your real loyalties: Should we have taken Trump’s advice?

[Paul R.]

You mean it will take over a decade for Russia to complete the switch?

Could be.

[Paul R.]

I assume China wants to get off LNG, due to the cost. But, good luck with that.

[ansel12]

“Sounds tougher on Europe than on Russia.”

This is what President Trump and conservatives wanted, this is a good result.

[McGruff]

Well that’s an optimistic view. Good thing Europe doesn’t need it anymore.

[lodi90]

because once weaned off Russian oil and gas, there is little reason for the EU to ever go back

---

The reason to go back is corruption. Russia has spent billions of dollars corruptly buying European politicians. That’s one of the reasons why President Trump wants so much to kick Russian influence out of Europe.

[SmokingJoe]

Now why don't you at least learn to speak proper English before you spew out your gobbledygook?

Unfortunately for Pooty, your general already has been assassinated by the (gas) detail.

Huh?
No one has been “assassinated by any gas detail” let alone some random general.

Unless you can show us actual data otherwise, there is just no existing infrastructure / transport to get much over half the gas Russia was exporting to Europe, to China and India.

Again, from Bloomberg, Russia is ALREADY exporting natural gas to China through pipelines and LNG NOW.
Go read it yourself here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-22/russia-sets-out-how-much-it-s-going-to-cut-gas-flow-through-2025#xj4y7vzkg

This “can” be addressed, but it will take about a decade.

Its already happening NOW.
Stop gaslighting Mister Ukraine Troll!

The West with far greater resources (money, tech, expertise, experience, etc.) and shorter routes to cover will beat Russia to it (getting infrastructure built).

The Russians actually built the Gazprom 1 and Gazprom 2 pipelines to Western Europe.
They KNOW how to build and operate gas/oil pipelines.
And now they have the mighty Chinese industrial machine helping them to build even newer faster gas pipelines from Russia to China.

Moscow unveils details of new gas pipeline to China’
https://www.rt.com/business/562882-russia-china-gas-pipeline/

‘Russia, China to Break Ground on Gas Pipeline Via Mongolia in 2024 – PM’
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/18/russia-china-to-break-ground-on-gas-pipeline-via-mongolia-in-2024-pm-a78323

What more you got?

[SmokingJoe]

I assume China wants to get off LNG, due to the cost.

China will get most of the natural gas they need from Russia through new, faster pipelines. And at cheaper pries too.

Moscow unveils details of new gas pipeline to China’
https://www.rt.com/business/562882-russia-china-gas-pipeline/

[House Atreides]

“… once weaned off Russian oil and gas, there is little reason for the EU to ever go back…”
************************************************************************

Little reason? I guess COST and AVAILABILITY doN’T fit the CURRENT EU leaders’ definition of a reason. After all, why should they care what the European PEASANTS pay for energy. I guess it’s not occurring to them that the composition of EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS CAN CHANGE.

TIME WILL TELL, won’t it. TICK, TOCK.

[BeauBo]

“Meanwhile my Swedish mother-in-law’s power bill is going from 20k krona to 140k krona.”

Looks like gas prices peaked last month, and are down about a half since then. Electricity prices will likely recover as well.

[BeauBo]

“Russia is ALREADY exporting natural gas to China”

Russia was exporting gas to China last year (about 7% of its exports). Now it is essentially flowing 100% of the Eastern pipelines capacity (Power of Siberia), and docking a few more shiploads of LNG. They have the physical transport capacity to roughly double what they sold to China in the past - but nowhere near the amount that they are losing from Europe (85% of last year’s exports, from fields thousands of miles from China, with pipelines that only run toward Europe.

Sakhalin can provide a few percentage points more of new LNG capacity in coming years, but the main new capacity planned to transport more gas to China was the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline - planned to go operational in 2030, but the partners withdrew this year after the invasion, and took away the financing. It would have been a 1,600 mile new pipeline from the Yamal fields, from which additional new pipelines were in different stages of planning to distribute it further around China. That is all up in the air now.

[BeauBo]

“average peak Winter use”

Winter is typically the peak usage period of the year. So it is average Winter usage - about 10 weeks worth of the typical heavy Winter use. Not worst case. Ten weeks of average mid-Winter use (assuming no other supply arriving) - about 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) of storage capacity.

[BeauBo]

“Russia cannot physically move that gas to new customers for the next decade, if ever.”

It runs through fixed pipelines. New pipelines would have to be built across time zones of distance.

Most of Russia’s oil exports are aboard tanker ships, that can just dock at another port to unload, but most of the gas flows though pipelines, that were just shut off. New pipelines would have to be built to other customers (or to new LNG terminals that would also have to be built). They don’t exist now to transport that gas from the old pipelines.

[BeauBo]

“I assume China wants to get off LNG, due to the cost. But, good luck with that.”

China has been actively pursuing an “all of the above” approach to energy security, and going especially heavy with coal - Chinese domestic coal production is up 25% this year. They have been stocking up reserves of Coal, oil and gas at a heightened rate this year.

[SmokingJoe]

Russia was exporting gas to China last year (about 7% of its exports).

Except you claimed in your post # 1 that, “Russia cannot physically move that gas to new customers for the next decade, if ever.”, which is nonsense, since Russia is already moving natural gas to new customers in China and Asia.

Now it is essentially flowing 100% of the Eastern pipelines capacity

Huh? Russian gas flows to Europe are DOWN 82%!

They have the physical transport capacity to roughly double what they sold to China in the past - but nowhere near the amount that they are losing from Europe (85% of last year's exports, from fields thousands of miles from China, with pipelines that only run toward Europe.

They are building new pipelines, with the help of the mighty Chinese industrial machine. Not that the Russians don't have the capacity to build it all themselves. They do. They built the Gazprom pipelines to western Europe after all.

Read this :

‘Moscow unveils details of new gas pipeline to China’
https://www.rt.com/business/562882-russia-china-gas-pipeline/

You seem to forget that China shares a border with Russia and Siberia is closer to China than to Germany.

[BeauBo]

"“Russia cannot physically move that gas to new customers"

That Gas.

THAT Gas - the gas that was going to Europe.

If you have two houses, one in Florida, and one in California, that get their water from local pipelines, and one gets cut off, there is a problem in assuming that you will just use the water from the other house. They are not connected. Running a hose is not quick or simple, and probably not worth the cost.

Russia is much bigger however, than just the distance between California and Florida (11 time zones wide).

THAT gas (from European pipeline networks) cannot magically appear from spigots in China, just as you can't just turn on the California water at your Florida house. Pipelines would have to built, to move THAT gas, or THAT water across a continent first.

The pipeline that does exist between Russia and China (Power of Siberia) connects smaller gas fields in the Far East and Sakhalin Island to China - not THAT gas from the huge Arctic Yamal fields, or the Caspian Basin, that (used to) service Europe. There is nowhere else for the great bulk of THAT gas to go, except up in flames, or cap the wells.

Pipelines seldom operate at peak capacity - peak pressure - all the time. While China is wanting to buy more Russian gas (as they have in the last few months), they have some margin to increase pressure, to move more volume through that (Power of Siberia) pipe. Lately they have been pushing near peak capacity through the Eastern (Power of Siberia) pipeline (roughly doubling last year's throughput rate) - but this has nothing to do with THAT gas, that used to go to Europe. THAT gas is stuck on the other side of the continent, around the bend of the curvature of the Earth, far, far away. THAT gas, that used to go to Europe, was 85% of Russia's gas exports last year, running through a huge network of pipelines, built over more than half a century.

OK, for the second time, I read your link about a "new" pipeline to China. For the second time, I will quote that article, and point out that this proposal is for the distant future - 2030 or beyond.

"Designed to carry natural gas to China via Mongolia, the Soyuz Vostok pipeline is part of the larger Power of Siberia 2 pipeline."

Power of Siberia 2 was planned to be built over 1,600 miles from the Arctic, to bring gas to China. The pipeline in the article you linked (Soyuz Vostok) is envisioned as a spur off of that proposed long haul pipeline (which does not exist, was planned to start flowing in 2030, but had its financing pulled when partners withdrew this year, because of the invasion).

[SmokingJoe]

The pipeline in the article you linked (Soyuz Vostok) is envisioned as a spur off of that proposed long haul pipeline (which does not exist, was planned to start flowing in 2030, but had its financing pulled when partners withdrew this year, because of the invasion).

The Chinese can and will provide all the capital needed.
They stand to benefit massively from cheap and plentiful supplies of Russian natural gas for DECADES.
You think only western countries have capital do you?

[BeauBo]

“The Chinese can and will provide all the capital needed.”

It would still take a decade. European gas exports were largely cut off between June and now, leaving a gap in Russian revenues.

Looking at how China finances resource extraction around the world, the term “debt trap” was coined. They will own Russia’s gas, and therefor likely own Russia’s politicians.

It is not the first time that China has ridden to “rescue” another country desperate for financing. It is their signature scam. Their foreign Intelligence service specializes in that

[SmokingJoe]

Russia is building a massive, 50 billion cubic meter gas pipeline to China

https://interestingengineering.com/culture/russia-gas-pipeline-to-china</b>

[BeauBo]

From your link:

“A month ago, the results of the feasibility study were approved, and today a design contract has been signed”

Let me translate that for you. - not one inch of that pipeline has been built, nothing is currently under construction, and construction won’t even begin for years, if ever.

The planned operational date of 2030 will likely slip later, because the partners and funding were withdrawn, because of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.