“If landfall is at Venice, what does that mean for Tampa to the north?”
Nowhere near as bad as, say, 15 miles to the north of it. The spin CCW, so winds a bit to the east of the eye are the worst, as you add the speed of the whirlwind to the eyewall speed.
The winds to the east push the ocean water ahead of them. That’s storm surge. It can be brutal. Like a 13 foot slow wall of water coming up. With 120 mph wind going same direction. Ànd it’s in no rush to go back down.
In those conditions, there is no longer a boundary between sea and air. It’s more like 30 foot tall firehose of seawater and air. For hours.
Tampa might catch a seriously good break. Tampa Bay is a big pool of potential storm surge, kind of a funnel.
Thank you!