Paper tiger? Lulz.
You don’t need to accept ORYX bogus numbers, Kyiv Armed Forces numbers or even believe Russian MoD numbers, etc. to see that Ukraine has lost almost all of its prewar combat vehicle and aircraft assets. Hell, Ukraine can’t even provide air cover and support for any offensive they have done of late. Destruction of their repair facilities has aggravated this shortage, as well. The evidence for the Ukrainian hardware losses is the large transfers of old Soviet gear and US gear (such as m113 armored personnel carriers, etc.) from the US-led NATO countries. After all that is destroyed, presumably, we will see an influx of U.S. Humvees and NATO tanks.
No problem, Russia just donated them a large number of AFVs in the Kherson region.
“After all that is destroyed, presumably, we will see an influx of U.S. Humvees and NATO tanks.”
Now you’re starting to get the picture. Russia is also losing great numbers of equipment, except they have nobody to give them replacements. So as time goes by, the Russian army degrades and the Ukraine army is upgraded. That’s not a very good situation for Russia to put herself in.
Ukraine was supposed to be finished in a couple of weeks. The Russkies have lost a lot. Your piece looks like it was written from Russkie propaganda.
But what does that say about the state of Russian forces that the Ukrainians had that much success against them anyway? Russia hasn't been able to mount even a hint of a counter-attack against the allegedly overextended and over-exposed Ukrainian army in the northeast. If they had any significant mechanized reserves at all, the right move would have been to hammer the Ukrainians. Who, as you point out, don't control the air. But that didn't happen. Even if you want to argue that this was a strategic withdrawal by the Russians, a sharp counter attack to make the Ukrainians pay still would have made tactical sense. But...nothing.
For that matter, isn't this threat of mobilization an open acknowledgement that Russia failed to accomplish its goals with the army that it currently has?
People need to stop looking at this invasion through the prism of World War II. In World War II, Stalin could grab a conscript, hand him a rifle (or have him pick one up from a dead buddy), and toss them into the line against the Germans. And if he didn't show sufficient enthusiasm, the NKVD battalions would mow him down.
That won't work in 2022. And Russia doesn't have enough of a functioning reservist system to give recruits even that much training.