“Anyone on the ground in Oregon able to speak to this?”
Portland and Eugene are strong lib. Salem is middle ground and the rest of Oregon is conservative.
Quite possible that Kotex and Johnson split the vote and Drazen (R) gets in. Governor Brown is despised in Oregon.
That pretty much confirms the theory, but why is the Spoiler running... she left the D party to run as an I, and at best will play spoiler, so what is her motivation to do so?