This was not an operational trap by Russia, but neither was it a victory in battle for Ukraine - for the simple reason that there was not much of a battle at all. Russia had already hollowed out these positions, and withdrew the remaining screening forces very quickly. Ukraine covered a lot of ground, but were unable to destroy any Russian units, because there really weren’t any there.
It would be silly to try to talk the Ukrainian side out of their excitement right now. Credit where credit is due, they did manage to put together a good sized shock group, aim it at a weak portion of the front, and regain a good bit of ground. Considering the abject lack of successes for Ukraine in this war, they are rightfully trying to eke every last bit of morale and propaganda out of this.
I do not, however, believe that the territorial losses in Kharkov in any way change the ultimate calculus of the war. Russia hollowed out this front and surrendered ground, but they were able to maul the Ukrainian forces as they advanced with relentless artillery and airstrikes. Ukrainian channels widely report overflowing hospitals. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed 4,000 killed and 8,000 wounded for Ukraine during their advance - I believe this is high, but even if we reduce the numbers by 50% (leaving us with 6,000 total casualties, reasonable given how much ordnance Russia discharged) it is very clear that the loss ratios in this operation were stacked badly against Ukraine, as they always are.
I thought you told us Ukraine can’t advance because Russia just treats them apart with artillery.
But now the Russian lines were “hollowed out” and they withdrew.
I assume Russia will regroup and launch new attacks.
But as we’ve seen cities are a messy job to capture. Or recapture. So if the Ukrainians get some cities back, then can make the Russians party for them.
As for casualties, at least right now the greatest casualty is Russian prestige and morale.
And make up your mind, either the Russians just withdrew or the Ukrainians suffered all these supppsed casualties in hard fighting.
Every indication is the Russians are shocked by these setbacks.
I don’t predict the war’s ultimate outcome,but slogging it out for a year in Ukraine was not the Russian plan.
This post of yours seems to be procreating.
Quick question: given Russia won’t compromise on its earlier unconditional surrender terms to Ukraine, and is now targeting critical infrastructure, why is it ALSO pulling out of areas it held comfortably and was doing so to “protect” the Russian Ukrainian people?
One side of that action simply motivates the Ukrainians to fight back harder, while the other side motivates the AFU to liberate large areas.
Imported Russians are getting out of dodge, but the resident Russian Ukrainians aren’t part of the withdrawal/evacuation plan, and according to all prior Russian rhetoric this means they’re exposed to Ukrainian Nazi counterattack.
Maybe someone should tell the long term ethnic Russian civilians inside the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts that one possible reason Russia’s bugging out in this fashion is that their presence was never about “saving” them at all. Dead Khokols aren’t a PR problem as far as Russia is concerned, even if they are Russian Khokols.
Russia wants the land, the resources, the tangible assets. To get them, it needs Ukraine’s unconditional surrender. I think many in Russia’s growing opposition to Putin’s “too slow” approach would take a “rational” decision to use tactical nukes on large settlements in liberated separatist areas, taking out a massive chunk of the Uke army along with an unpredictable local population. Ukraine won’t want the Donbass back if it’s been nuked.