Posted on 08/05/2022 12:18:28 PM PDT by conservative98
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the South China Morning Post on Thursday that he would like to discuss his country’s war against Russia with the leader of Russia’s closest ally, Xi Jinping, “directly,” and invited China to help rebuild Ukraine once the war is over.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Yes,the Chinese tend to take the long view. Some here on FR have scoffed at me for saying that, but they do appear to (although the commies have done some very foolish things).
The Russians have always cast a wary eye at the Chinese, and you are right about China coveting parts of southeastern Russia along the border and considering them as rightfully theirs. They have already been busy across the border.
This Chinese-American says the Chinese presence there is waning, partly due to a push back via Russian regulations, but I’m not sure about that, at least long term. The AT article he links to in the second paragraph by a Ukrainian scholar is good:
https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/the-myth-of-a-chinese-takeover-in-the-russian-far-east/
The last scene in The Camp of The Saints has the Russians facing off against hordes of starving Chinese massed at the border (and reflects Russian fears back in the day). But it was written in 1973, before all the Western investment in and trade with China.* Lately, the Russians just swat them back a bit through bureaucratic measures. We’ll see if that continues now. (Other scenes in that book may come true in Europe if the global food shortage is as dire as predicted, though.)
Anyway, I always thought it a mistake on our part to drive a reluctant Russia into an alliance with China, but way, way too late now.
Here’s an interesting take by influential leading Chinese academic Chen Feng. At one point, he used a Chinese idiom to describe the war in Ukraine:
“The mantis stalks the cicada, unaware of the oriole behind”
(figurative meaning: “to pursue a narrow gain while neglecting a greater danger”)
Then says “The bigger question that the United States is unwilling to face is, who is the mantis and who is the cicada?” China is obviously the oriole. So are we the cicada or the mantis? And which is Russia? Does it matter?
Have a look at a mantis attempting to capture a cicada:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V3A7tqJoVGs
As you can see, both are large insects. The mantis is strong, and intelligent for an insect, with amazing reach, but the huge, noisy, primitive cicada is also very strong, well-armored and has an enormous wingspan. Both are likely to be damaged or weakened in such a fight. Meanwhile, the oriole stalks from behind. (Of course I think we’re the mantis, Russia the cicada.)
Link to essay by Chen Feng (you’ll have to run it through Google translate). Long, but well worth the read — and keep in mind it was written back in March):
https://m.guancha.cn/ChenFeng3/2022_03_02_628308
Even though written at the very beginning of the conflict, he got so much right. Interesting to see his take on it.
Yes, whoever “wins” this war in Ukraine, China is the real winner. I’ve been saying that since the beginning.
*I’m old enough to remember my mother telling me to clean my plate back in the 60s when I was just a little tyke, saying “Think of the starving children in China.” I did think about them, and asked for a box. I was all excited that Sky King would land on our suburban street in his shiny silver airplane and whisk my boxed plate of food off to the starving children like on the Care Package commercials on TV. She still insisted on a clean plate, but never tried the starving Chinese children line again.
(Yes, I now know the CARE packages only went to West Berlin, but I was just a tiny little thing at the time. And no, it wasn’t really Sky King in the commercials, but there was a resemblance, to my little mind, and the shiny airplane was similar.)
Thank you for your interesting post.
And more so in the current environment with a pack of interlopers on any Ukraine thread.
I enjoy an opposing view, BS, and name calling /not so much.
I fail to understand why they return, as it is unlikely they will convert anyone.
I believe the old line, ‘the hotter the fire better the sword’, nothing wrong with an opposing argument, but BS doesn’t burn, not even spark, it simply stinks.
I digress...
from The Diplomat:
“The Chinese are invading Russia, not with tanks but with suitcases,”
IMO, Putin could have had Ukraine using the same technique. But lacked the patience.
“Chinese state-owned firms in collaboration with politically connected Russian oligarchs.”
And that takes us to —“The mantis stalks the cicada, unaware of the oriole behind”
“However, the general declining trend of Chinese businesses in the Russian Far East shows that the belief that Chinese presence in the regions will only increase from now on is based on assumptions and myths with little empirical evidence.”
The cliche slightly adjusted is: The Russians have the watches, the Chinese have the time.
—”The last scene in The Camp of The Saints has the Russians facing off against hordes of starving Chinese massed at the border”
IMO after Putin’s debacle has run on ... it will be hungry Russian swarms begging for a handout, Mother Russia cries.
If Putin murders, kidnaps and displaces most Ukrainians. His dream of Holodomor II.
It will be a guerilla war shooting gallery for a very long time.
Russians do not reproduce quickly, no young men for the army or labor in its factories. Will Putin bring Asians? Not on that scale.
https://m.guancha.cn/ChenFeng3/2022_03_02_628308
—”This is a great boost to RMB internationalization and CIPS (CNY Cross-border Payment System). Russia’s trade settlement with Vietnam, Central Asia and even India may be partially converted to RMB settlement. Anyway, these countries also have close trade ties with China. Holding a lot of renminbi is not a problem at all. There may even be European and American companies that use renminbi for settlement to avoid financial sanctions.”
Once burned, twice shy! The Euros will not return to energy dependency on Russia. NB: The genesis of the French Nuclear industry.
—”Russia’s GDP per capita is lower than China’s, at $10,126 in 2020.”
And dropping for a long time.
—”The Russian army is likely to withdraw after annihilating the main force of the Ukrainian army and completing the de facto demilitarization, leaving the mess to Ukraine and the EU. At that time, the EU really had a moral responsibility to help Ukraine recover its economy, but only time will tell how powerful it is.”
And what trophy does Putin show for Russia’s blood and treasure?
—”In an ideal situation, Europe has no real security threat, but “voluntarily” strengthens its armaments to lighten the burden on the United States, and the United States only needs to assume “leadership responsibility”. To this end, the United States has been hyping the “Russian threat”. But Russia has really gone mad. Europe really needs the leadership of the United States and shoulders the burden, and the United States cannot escape from Europe. The U.S. military must return to Europe, not as it is now. Only the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment (”Stryker”) and the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Germany are permanently stationed in two light units, otherwise the American leadership will be blown away .”
—” The bigger question that the United States is unwilling to face is, who is the mantis and who is the cicada? That’s the real problem.”
If you have the time, 1Hr 15Min, an enjoyable documentary:
Empire of Dust - China in Africa
The vast wilderness of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a world away from the urban centers of China. Yet it is there that greater numbers of Chinese engineers are doing business. In the documentary Empire of Dust, featured in the “Panorama” section of this year’s International Film Festival Amsterdam (IDFA), director Bram Van Paesschen explores the fraught relationship between the Congolese and the Chinese, as shown through their efforts to build a road between two major cities in the DRC.
In 2007, China and Congo signed a massive resources-for-infrastructure deal with projected revenues of $40-$120 billion. China endeavors to take on a wide range of development projects (including roads, hospitals, schools and airports)
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5gdfm4
That is probably the most important objective.
Re: “I enjoy an opposing view, BS, and name calling /not so much.”
Sales here. I mainly stay off these threads because they’re like a brawl between football fans of opposing teams.
Re: “IMO, Putin could have had Ukraine using the same technique. But lacked the patience.”
He did try that tack for some time, but we did not allow it. Had we adopted a more reasonable policy toward Russia from the beginning, there likely never would have been a President Putin. Well, too late, but indications are that Putin would have settled for a neutral Ukraine that acts as a bridge between Russia and the West, and this may have proven proven beneficial to both sides, and allowed Ukraine to prosper if they could get the corruption under control. But we weren’t having that.
The cicada-mantis-oriole metaphor is, I think, correct. This war in Ukraine is weakening both Russia and the West. And making them easier pickings for China.
“The Russians have the watches, the Chinese have the time.” is also correct, IMHO.
I don’t know that Putin dreams of a Holomodor 2.0, He does want to smash the place up.
Re: “Once burned, twice shy! The Euros will not return to energy dependency on Russia. NB: The genesis of the French Nuclear industry.”
He appeared to be talking of the short term here. Some European countries *might* go that route to secure energy if necessary to keep from freezing this winter. We’ll see.
Re: “But Russia has really gone mad. Europe really needs the leadership of the United States and shoulders the burden, and the United States cannot escape from Europe. The U.S. military must return to Europe, not as it is now. Only the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment (”Stryker”) and the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Germany are permanently stationed in two light units, otherwise the American leadership will be blown away .”
The thing is,the Europeans are not allowed to manage these things, but must bow to American “ leadership”. If they try, we sabotage their efforts. After the events of 2014 (to put as neutral a point on it as possible), the Europeans tried to put Humpty Dumpty back together again with Minsk, which the Ukrainians signed off on, but we discouraged them from implementing it (same tactic we used with Izetbegovic and Lisbon that sparked off the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina). Nope, we don’t allow the Europeans to deal with conflicts and make peace in their own backyard. No way. That’s not their place, but ours. NATO rules, y’all. It’s our favorite power tool, and it’s still relevant, Cold War or no. Get that through your heads, Euros. You can’t manage without us and NATO.
See: https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4077554/posts?page=21#21
Zelensky ran on a peace ticket and got over 70% of the vote, but when he tried to begin to take steps to implement a modified version of Minsk and went to remonstrate with AZOV about the ceasefire, he got spanked but good.* Kolomoisky owns both Zelensky and AZOV, so it may have been political theater. I’ve posted about this before. Anyway, the result was no ceasefire, more NATO.
There were some cracks beginning to show, some grumbling among the Europeans in NATO before this war started. Now we are crowing about a NATO united as never before. So, yeah, we won our main goal. But at what cost? Never mind the cost to the Ukrainians. We don’t really care about that, anymore than we cared about the cost to the peoples of Bosnia-Hercegovina. Let them fight to the last Ukrainian.
Personally, I think all this Russia-Russia-Russia hysteria we’ve been pushing while remaining complacent about China has been a huge mistake. Had Minsk been implemented and had we not been so aggressive re NATO in Ukraine, Putin would have had no standing or domestic support for this invasion.
Re: “And what trophy does Putin show for Russia’s blood and treasure?”
That remains to be seen. Domestically, perhaps being seen as tough and standing up to the perfidious West and NATO, plus protecting ethnic Russians, and a nice little land bridge toand water security for Crimea.
Internationally, (and on this front China benefits more than Russia), perhaps an erosion of the almighty petrodollar, a strengthening of BRICs, the US and Europe pouring resources into NATO and Ukraine while suffering economic fallout from fuel shortages, supply chain disruptions, etc. Resources we could have poured into strengthening our position vis a vis China, but won’t. A number of Asian countries are not amused at having to put up with higher energy and food prices thanks to our “European” war, and likely facing food shortages. China scores there.
Re: The Empire of Dust
It didn’t take me long to figure out the alternate title could have been “Africa Always Wins”, but I haven’t finished watching it yet. I’ve been thinking and saying here for some time that now it’s China’s turn to learn that lesson. Thanks for the link!
*In the fall of 2019 when Zelensky went to Zolote to remonstrate with AZOV & Co. about implementing the ceasefire, he got schooled but good (short video of exchange here):
https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1188041134943154177
Or read more about it here:
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/04/how-zelensky-made-peace-with-neo-nazis/
Thank you again.
I had not thought much about Bosnia-Herzegovina in many years.
At that time I worked for Serb, but not exactly, he was born and raised in Chicago and spoke several of the languages, still attends his church in the city... I do not believe he was a propagandist.
The main point I recall was that he felt much of the “news” was manufactured. He said many of the different ethnicities were intermarried and not so easy to determine who was who.
Suddenly friends no longer spoke, even here in Chicago.
IIRC it was called wag the dog?
Yes, long-term for Europe, probably not nuclear.
Norway says they are using the funds from energy sales to pay for a carbon-free future...
The French nuclear expansion began with the Messmer Plan, announced in response to the oil
crisis of 1973. The plan, set out by then Prime Minister Pierre Messmer, was for France to go
‘all nuclear, all electric’. That is, electricity would replace oil and coal in all uses, including
transport, and all new generating capacity would be nuclear.
—”That’s not their place, but ours. NATO rules, y’all. It’s our favorite power tool, and it’s still relevant, Cold War or no. Get that through your heads, Euros. You can’t manage without us and NATO.”
He who pays the piper calls the tune.
Some like Albright are not up to the job.
—“Africa Always Wins”
No object can resist an irresistible force. No force can move an immovable object.
IMO China wins more than they lose.
They win if the joint center is a success, if not they might acquire land for a foreign base.
Also, they seem to be adding the great Chinese diaspora by using Chinese labor on many projects.
Ukraine asks China for help rebuilding after its war with Russia while the United States sends billions of dollars to Ukraine and prepares for a possible simultaneous war with Russia over Ukraine and China over Taiwan.
US foreign policy seems schizophrenic because it actually is.
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